Jeremy Peña
SS · Sugar Land Space Cowboys · Triple-A · 28.0y · #5212 of 7,949 we rate
Next: Thu 12:05 AM vs Reno Aces
- The player
- LONG SHOT
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Watch
28 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
9 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Nobody has logged a completed sale for this card, so we can't say what it's worth.
Our take
Long-shot prospect, untested market.
Jeremy Peña scores 28 out of 100 (#5212 of the 7,949 we score), and the case rests on one thing: contact: plus — 14.3% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 88% at his level.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 7 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
The signal
Old for the level
-2.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than only 25% of the players there.
Plate discipline: well below
0.0% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Contact: plus
14.3% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 88% at his level.
Premium position
SS — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
What the hobby pays up for
SS is a position the hobby pays up for; 28.0 is old for a prospect card.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Small sample
7 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
Age for the level
-2.0y vs his level at Triple-A puts him younger than only 25% of the cohort. The clock is a real cost on a prospect card.
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
Baseball vs card market
INSUFFICIENT MARKET EVIDENCE- The baseball
- trajectory unmeasured
- The cards
- no measurable move
Why this divergence exists
We have not measured his baseball trajectory, so there is nothing to set the card market against.
Compare him with every player whose baseball has outrun his cards.
What the hobby pays for him
A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.
Benchmark not yet established — no 1st Bowman vehicle observed for this player. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
Best Bowman card to own
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
Secondary and avoid: 1 live listing is a certified auto that is not (or not provably) his 1st Bowman Chrome — a later or lesser vehicle, ranked below the canonical card whatever its serial number.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, /499 at $120.96 costs 1.48× base, and print run alone suggests 1.15×, with no measured sales to check it against — best balance available. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.
Live listings that fit the thesis
Ranked by card fit, identity and listing quality — never by what pays us, and never cheapest-first.
- 12020 Bowman Chrome 1st Jeremy Pena /150 Blue Refractor Auto PSA 9Core 1st auto, numbered · title claims 1st — not verified · no valuation$247.88See listing
- 22020 Bowman Chrome 1st Jeremy Pena Auto Blue Refractor /150 PSA 9 AstrosCore 1st auto, numbered · title claims 1st — not verified · no valuation · best offer$356.98See listing
- 32020 Bowman Jeremy Pena Chrome Auto 1st Prospect #CPA-JP Astros RefractorCore 1st auto · title claims 1st — not verified · no valuation · best offer$81.99See listing
What would make this a buy
- On his best-priced card: past the window.
- A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.
What is for sale right now
9 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 9 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 3 are under "The whole live market".
2020 1st Bowman Chrome JEREMY PENA Refractor Auto /499 Rookie Card Astros RC
/499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 21d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 144h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$120.96
modeled ~$5.00
WATCH
2020 Bowman Chrome 1st Jeremy Pena /150 Blue Refractor Auto PSA 9
/150 · PSA 9 · listed 1d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
$247.88
modeled ~$140.25
WATCH
2020 Bowman Chrome 1st Jeremy Pena Auto Blue Refractor /150 PSA 9 Astros
/150 · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 1310d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
$356.98
modeled ~$140.25
WATCH
BGS 9.5 RC AUTO /499 JEREMY PENA 1ST BOWMAN ⚡ROOKIE REFRACTOR 2020 Bowman Chrome
/499 · BGS 9.5 · listed 15d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 148h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$708.30
no sold price
WATCH
2020 Bowman Chrome JEREMY PENA GREEN REFRACTOR RC Auto # /99 1st Edition Gold
/99 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 3d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 50h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$1258.96
modeled ~$19.99
WATCH
2020 Bowman Chrome 1st Jeremy Pena /150 Blue Refractor Auto PSA 9 Astros
/150 · PSA 9 · listed 279d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
—
modeled ~$140.25
WATCH
What the same money buys today
Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Jeremy Peña, just what the money can do today.
- Walker Jenkinsbase$67.98Watch
- Rainiel Rodriguezbase$69.99Watch46% under fair value
- Luke AdamsHTA Choice Refractor · /150$74.96Watch
Compared within $40.99–$86.09, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
Catalyst timelineno logged or derived event yet
No event on his timeline yet — no logged promotion, call-up or injury, and no level change between the two seasons we hold. Derived events appear as stat lines land; logged ones appear with their source.
Every event on the catalyst tracker carries the same grade.
His canonical cardsno card identity established yet
A card reaches verified only from a checklist source. A seller's title can make it likely when independent sellers agree, and never more. Cards with a page of their own link to it.
No card identity has been established for him yet. A card enters this list when independent sellers describe the same card the same way or a confirmed sale names it — a single seller's title never does.
The parallel ladder3 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- RefractorTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $81.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $81.99 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $120.96, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $120.96 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +48%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Green Refractor /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $1258.96, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $1258.96 live
- Scarcity
- 99 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +941%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
6 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 48 on the 20–80 scale, against 747 hitters at Triple-A
What he is good at
skills overall 48 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 747 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
62
plus · better than 88% at his level
14.3% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
49
average · better than 46% at his level
.143 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
36
well below · better than 8% at his level
0.0% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
44
below average · better than 29% at his level
0 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
35
well below · better than 7% at his level · the result, not a skill
.429 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
43
below average · better than 25% at his level · context, not a skill
-2.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 43th percentile of the cohort, production at the 7th — his tools run further ahead of his results than 97% of the players he is measured against.
The market prices the stat line, and his is behind what he is doing. That is where a card is cheap for a reason that can change.
How this is read: his skills average 43 and his production sits at 7, a gap of +36. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 746 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 97th percentile.
Will he get there?
Real chance 6.0 / 10
- already at Triple-A
- old for Triple-A
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 76% of what it wants to know — missing production, form.
How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 747 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
7
AVG
.143
OBP
.143
SLG
.286
OPS
.429
better than 7%
HR
0
SB
0
BB%
0.0
K%
14.3
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market9 listed · 0 eBay-verified · 3 not shown above
- Listings
- 9
- Lowest seen
- $81.99
- Median ask
- $302.43
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $81.99
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $120.96
0 eBay-verified
The other 3 cards
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run