Teddy McGraw
SP · Arkansas Travelers · Arkansas Travelers · Double-A · 24.0y · #4555 of 7,942 we rate
Next: Tue 11:35 PM vs Northwest Arkansas Naturals
- The player
- LONG SHOT
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Wait
33 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
17 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Closest of his is Teddy McGraw 2023 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st… at $15.98. Waiting on sales.
Our take
Long-shot prospect, untested market.
Teddy McGraw scores 33 out of 100 (#4555 of the 7,942 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — 0.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 70% of the players there.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: pitcher — injury risk is materially higher and the resale market is smaller, which is why the strategy caps what share of a book pitchers can take.
The signal
Young for the level
0.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 70% of the players there.
Stuff: well below
17.4% K — strikeout rate per batter faced — never per nine innings, which flatters a pitcher who allows more baserunners
K-BB% slipping
24.1% last season to 9.1% this one.
Strikeouts slipping
28.9% last season to 17.4% this one.
Control: plus
8.3% BB — walk rate, inverted — lower is better from the mound Better than 78% at his level.
Moved up and held it
High-A to Double-A, though the prior season is a thin sample.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Pitcher
Injury risk is materially higher and the resale market is smaller, which is why the strategy caps what share of a book pitchers can take.
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CDA-TM — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 2 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
No price on this card yet
sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 2 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CDA-TM
Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto
The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 2 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, /150 at $15.98 costs 1.82× base, and print run alone suggests 1.50×, with no measured sales to check it against — best balance available. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.
What would make this a buy
- Waiting on sales
- Player not there yet
What is for sale right now
17 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 17 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 11 are under "The whole live market".
Teddy McGraw 2023 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Prospect Choice Refractor Auto /150 RC
/150 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 18d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 95h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$15.98
modeled ~$3.99
WATCH
TEDDY MCGRAW 2023 BOWMAN CHROME REFRACTOR 1ST ROOKIE AUTO /499
/499 · raw · condition not stated · listed 10d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 95h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$14.31
modeled ~$7.00
WATCH
2023 Bowman Draft Chrome Teddy McGraw 1st Bowman AUTO Refractor /499 CDA-TM
/499 · raw · condition not stated · listed 68d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 95h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$15.78
modeled ~$7.00
WATCH
TEDDY McGRAW 2023 Bowman Draft Chrome 1ST AUTO REFRACTOR #/499 Mariners
/499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 157d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 95h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$19.98
modeled ~$7.00
WATCH
2023 Bowman Draft Chrome Teddy McGraw 1st Bowman AUTO CDA-TM
base · raw · condition not stated · listed 68d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 95h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$8.78
modeled ~$5.00
WATCH
2023 Bowman Chrome Draft Teddy McGraw 1st Bowman Prospect Auto - MARINERS
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 175d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 95h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$9.75
modeled ~$5.00
WATCH
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder6 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $8.78, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $8.78 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Blue Wave RefractorTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $21.33, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $21.33 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +143%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - HTA Choice RefractorTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $22.49, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $22.49 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +5%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $14.31, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $14.31 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -36%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $13.01, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $13.01 live
- Scarcity
- 250 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -9%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $15.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $15.98 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +23%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
What he is good atSkills 49 on the 20–80 scale, against 567 pitchers at Double-A
What he is good at
skills overall 49 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 567 pitchers at Double-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Stuff
Does he miss bats?
41
well below · better than 19% at his level
17.4% K
strikeout rate per batter faced — never per nine innings, which flatters a pitcher who allows more baserunners
Command
Bats missed AND strikes thrown?
47
average · better than 37% at his level
9.1% K-BB
strikeouts minus walks — the gap that survives a promotion
Control
Does he give away bases?
58
plus · better than 78% at his level
8.3% BB
walk rate, inverted — lower is better from the mound
Run prevention
Do the runs stay off the board?
60
plus · better than 85% at his level · the result, not a skill
1.20 WHIP
walks and hits per inning, inverted — the result, and the defence behind him is in it too
Workload
Is he carrying a starter's innings?
49
average · better than 46% at his level · context, not a skill
26.2 IP
innings carried — a starter's bulk is worth what a reliever's is not
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
55
above average · better than 70% at his level · context, not a skill
0.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 3 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 45th percentile of the cohort, run prevention at the 85th — his results run further ahead of his tools than 97% of the players he is measured against.
The stat line is doing the selling and the skills underneath it are not carrying it. Pay for the line and you are paying for the part that does not repeat.
How this is read: his skills average 45 and his run prevention sits at 85, a gap of -40. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 566 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 3th percentile.
Will he get there?
Long shot 4.5 / 10
- already at Double-A
- old for Double-A
- pitcher — more of them break down before they arrive
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.
How he is playingThe Double-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 567 other pitchers at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
BF
109
IP
26.2
ERA
5.06
WHIP
1.20
K-BB%
9.1
better than 37%
K%
17.4
BB%
8.3
HR9
1.35
GS
0
Is this player getting better?
Down from 24.1% to 9.1% K-BB, but that came with a move up to Double-A — a step back at a harder level is normal — but last season was a small sample, so go easy on it.
Moved up from High-A to Double-A — the pitching is harder this year.
K-BB%
24.1%▼9.1%
Strikeouts
28.9%▼17.4%
Walks
4.8%▲8.3%
WHIP
1.45▼1.20
ERA
3.26▲5.06
Last season, 83 batters faced — a small enough sample that these gaps might just be luck. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market17 listed · 17 eBay-verified · 11 not shown above
- Listings
- 17
- Lowest seen
- $8.78
- Median ask
- $15.78
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $8.78
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $14.31
17 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 2 days ago.
The other 11 cards
- $11.982023 Bowman Draft #CDA-TM Teddy McGraw Chrome 1st Auto Seattle MarinersWATCH
- $13.99TEDDY MCGRAW 2023 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST RC AUTO #CDA-TMWATCH
- $16.602023 Teddy McGraw Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Auto RC #CDA-TM (H1083) $6 MAX SHIPWATCH
- —2023 Bowman Draft #CDA-TM Teddy McGraw Chrome 1st Auto Seattle MarinersWATCH
- —2023 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Autograph Auto Teddy McGraw Mariners CDA-TMWATCH
- $13.012023 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Purple Refractor /250 Teddy McGraw Auto 0p10WATCH
- $16.732023 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Refractor /499 Teddy McGraw #CDA-TM Auto 0p10WATCH
- $20.192023 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Refractor /499 Teddy McGraw #CDA-TM Auto 1p3oWATCH
- $10.132023 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Teddy McGraw #CDA-TM Auto 0l44WATCH
- $21.332023 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Blue Wave Refractor Teddy McGraw Auto 0p10WATCH
- $22.492023 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect HTA Choice Refractor Teddy McGraw Auto 0ft3WATCH
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run