AJ Russell
SP · Hub City Spartanburgers · Hub City Spartanburgers · High-A · 22.0y · #1655 of 7,942 we rate
Next: Tue 10:35 PM vs Jersey Shore BlueClaws
- The player
- SOLID
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Wait
55 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
3 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Closest of his is 2025 Bowman Chrome Draft AJ Russell 1st…. Waiting on sales.
Our take
Solid prospect, untested market.
AJ Russell scores 55 out of 100 (#1655 of the 7,942 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +1.0y vs his level at High-A — younger than 86% of the players there.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: pitcher — injury risk is materially higher and the resale market is smaller, which is why the strategy caps what share of a book pitchers can take.
The signal
Young for the level
+1.0y vs his level at High-A — younger than 86% of the players there.
Stuff: plus
34.3% K — strikeout rate per batter faced — never per nine innings, which flatters a pitcher who allows more baserunners Better than 92% at his level.
Command: plus
20.1% K-BB — strikeouts minus walks — the gap that survives a promotion Better than 87% at his level.
What the hobby pays up for
SP sells at a discount at equal production.
Why now
3 new copies listed this week
Fresh supply on this exact card. More choice, and more downward pressure.
What could go wrong
Pitcher
Injury risk is materially higher and the resale market is smaller, which is why the strategy caps what share of a book pitchers can take.
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2025 Bowman Draft 1st Auto CPA-AR — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 2 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
No price on this card yet
sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 2 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2025 Bowman Draft 1st Auto CPA-AR
Raw base 1st Bowman Draft Chrome Auto
The draft-class equivalent of the canonical auto — same card kind, other product line. Identified from 2 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, Base at $20.99 — the numbered ones cost more than they are worth, on print run alone. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.
What would make this a buy
- Waiting on sales
- Player not there yet
What is for sale right now
3 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 3 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 3 worth looking at, best first.
AJ Russell 1st Bowman Chrome Auto 2025 Bowman Draft #CPA-AR Rangers
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 1d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
$20.99
modeled ~$5.00
WATCH
2025 Bowman Chrome Draft AJ Russell 1st Auto #CPA-AR Rangers
base · raw · condition not stated · listed 1d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
—
modeled ~$5.00
WATCH
2025 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect AJ Russell #CPA-AR Auto 1h6j
base · raw · condition not stated · listed 3d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$34.56
modeled ~$5.00
WATCH
What the same money buys today
Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on AJ Russell, just what the money can do today.
- Cole CarriggRefractor$14.98Watch42% under fair value
- Cole Carriggbase$11.80Watch55% under fair value
Compared within $10.49–$22.04, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder1 version of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $20.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $20.99 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
What he is good atSkills 58 on the 20–80 scale, against 620 pitchers at High-A
What he is good at
skills overall 58 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 620 pitchers at High-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Stuff
Does he miss bats?
64
plus · better than 92% at his level
34.3% K
strikeout rate per batter faced — never per nine innings, which flatters a pitcher who allows more baserunners
Command
Bats missed AND strikes thrown?
61
plus · better than 87% at his level
20.1% K-BB
strikeouts minus walks — the gap that survives a promotion
Control
Does he give away bases?
48
average · better than 41% at his level
14.2% BB
walk rate, inverted — lower is better from the mound
Run prevention
Do the runs stay off the board?
51
average · better than 54% at his level · the result, not a skill
1.53 WHIP
walks and hits per inning, inverted — the result, and the defence behind him is in it too
Workload
Is he carrying a starter's innings?
50
average · better than 50% at his level · context, not a skill
30.0 IP
innings carried — a starter's bulk is worth what a reliever's is not
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
61
plus · better than 86% at his level · context, not a skill
+1.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 3 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 73th percentile of the cohort, run prevention at the 54th — his tools run further ahead of his results than 86% of the players he is measured against.
The market prices the stat line, and his is behind what he is doing. That is where a card is cheap for a reason that can change.
How this is read: his skills average 73 and his run prevention sits at 54, a gap of +19. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 620 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 86th percentile.
Will he get there?
Long shot 3.7 / 10
- old for High-A
- pitcher — more of them break down before they arrive
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 76% of what it wants to know — missing production, form.
How he is playingThe High-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 620 other pitchers at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
BF
134
IP
30.0
ERA
4.80
WHIP
1.53
K-BB%
20.1
better than 87%
K%
34.3
BB%
14.2
HR9
1.50
GS
9
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market3 listed · 3 eBay-verified
- Listings
- 3
- Lowest live
- $20.99
- Median ask
- $27.78
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $20.99
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- —
3 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 34 minutes ago.
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same