Alex McFarlane
SP · Lehigh Valley IronPigs · Lehigh Valley IronPigs · Triple-A · 25.0y · #136 of 7,942 we rate
Next: Tue 11:05 PM at Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders
- The player
- STRONG PROSPECT
- The market
- Expensive
- What to do
- Watch
80 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
His best base card asks $21.49, over the $16 that card has sold in.
The ask is over the odds — $21.49 against $16.00 these actually sell for — so the ask is not the price to think about. The offer is.
Our take
Strong prospect, expensive market.
Alex McFarlane scores 80 out of 100 (#136 of the 7,942 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +1.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 80% of the players there.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
The player is not the problem here; the entry is. Waiting for a reset costs nothing while the baseball case is intact.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 17 batters faced this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
The signal
Young for the level
+1.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 80% of the players there.
Stuff: plus-plus
47.1% K — strikeout rate per batter faced — never per nine innings, which flatters a pitcher who allows more baserunners Better than 99% at his level.
Moved up and held it
High-A to Triple-A.
Command: plus-plus
35.3% K-BB — strikeouts minus walks — the gap that survives a promotion Better than 98% at his level.
What the hobby pays up for
SP sells at a discount at equal production; 25.0 is old for a prospect card.
K-BB% improving
10.6% last season to 35.3% this one.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Small sample
17 batters faced this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
Pitcher
Injury risk is materially higher and the resale market is smaller, which is why the strategy caps what share of a book pitchers can take.
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Asks above the sold band
Every live card of his we can price is asking more than these have actually sold for, so today's entry is at a premium.
What the hobby pays for him
A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.
Benchmark not yet established — candidates seen, none corroborated by enough sellers. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
No good entry today
The closest to fair is 2022 Bowman Chrome Draft Alex McFarlane RC Rookie First Auto Autograph Phillies at $21.49, 34% over the $16 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.
That card at or under $16 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.
What would make this a buy
- On his best-priced card: past the window.
What is for sale right now
15 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 15 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 9 are under "The whole live market".
2022 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Aqua Lava Refractor Alex McFarlane PSA 9 Auto 16en
Aqua Lava Refractor · PSA 9 · listed 5d
Not a core card · 4 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$116.79
modeled ~$35.99
WATCH
2022 1st Bowman Draft GOLD Wave RC AUTO Alex McFarlane PSA 10! Autograph /50
/50 · PSA 10 · listed 3d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether the signature is factory-certified or added later
$280.00
no sold price
WATCH
2022 1st Bowman Draft GOLD Wave RC AUTO Alex McFarlane PSA 10! Autograph /50
/50 · PSA 10 · listed 20d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether the signature is factory-certified or added later
$300.00
no sold price
WATCH
2022 1st Bowman Draft RED Lava RC AUTO Alex McFarlane PSA 9! Rookie Autograph /5
/5 · PSA 9 · listed 3d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether the signature is factory-certified or added later
$490.00
no sold price
WATCH
2022 Bowman Chrome Draft Alex McFarlane RC First Blue Refractor Auto #'d /150
/150 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 2d
Past the window · 3 other things in the way
$55.98
modeled $24
PASS
2022 Bowman Chrome Draft Alex McFarlane RC Rookie First Refractor Auto #'d /499
/499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 2d
Past the window · 3 other things in the way
$35.98
modeled $18.40
PASS
What the same money buys today
Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Alex McFarlane, just what the money can do today.
- Cole CarriggRefractor$14.98Watch42% under fair value
- Cole Carriggbase$11.80Watch55% under fair value
Compared within $9.80–$20.58, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder6 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $19.60, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $19.60 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $35.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $35.98 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +84%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Aqua Lava Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $68.49, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $68.49 live
- Scarcity
- 199 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +90%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $56.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $56.99 live
- Scarcity
- 250 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -17%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Blue Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $55.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $55.98 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -2%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Green Refractor /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $74.24, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $74.24 live
- Scarcity
- 99 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +33%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
4 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 65 on the 20–80 scale, against 907 pitchers at Triple-A
What he is good at
skills overall 65 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 907 pitchers at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Stuff
Does he miss bats?
73
plus-plus · better than 99% at his level
47.1% K
strikeout rate per batter faced — never per nine innings, which flatters a pitcher who allows more baserunners
Command
Bats missed AND strikes thrown?
71
plus-plus · better than 98% at his level
35.3% K-BB
strikeouts minus walks — the gap that survives a promotion
Control
Does he give away bases?
50
average · better than 49% at his level
11.8% BB
walk rate, inverted — lower is better from the mound
Run prevention
Do the runs stay off the board?
69
plus-plus · better than 97% at his level · the result, not a skill
0.69 WHIP
walks and hits per inning, inverted — the result, and the defence behind him is in it too
Workload
Is he carrying a starter's innings?
39
well below · better than 14% at his level · context, not a skill
4.1 IP
innings carried — a starter's bulk is worth what a reliever's is not
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
58
plus · better than 80% at his level · context, not a skill
+1.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 3 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 82th percentile of the cohort, run prevention at the 97th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.
Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.
How this is read: his skills average 82 and his run prevention sits at 97, a gap of -15. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 907 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 21th percentile.
Will he get there?
Real chance 5.7 / 10
- already at Triple-A
- old for Triple-A
- pitcher — more of them break down before they arrive
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.
How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 907 other pitchers at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
BF
17
IP
4.1
ERA
0.00
WHIP
0.69
K-BB%
35.3
better than 98%
K%
47.1
BB%
11.8
HR9
0.00
GS
0
Is this player getting better?
Missing more bats and walking fewer batters than last season, against better hitters — 10.6% to 35.3% K-BB after moving up to Triple-A. That is the shape of a breakout.
Moved up from High-A to Triple-A — the pitching is harder this year.
K-BB%
10.6%▲35.3%
Strikeouts
23.1%▲47.1%
Walks
12.5%→11.8%
WHIP
1.35▼0.69
ERA
4.72▼0.00
Last season, 321 batters faced. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market15 listed · 15 eBay-verified · 9 not shown above
- Listings
- 15
- Lowest seen
- $19.60
- Median ask
- $62.74
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $19.60
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $35.98
15 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 6 hours ago.
The other 9 cards
- $21.492022 Bowman Chrome Draft Alex McFarlane RC Rookie First Auto Autograph PhilliesPASS
- $74.242022 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Green Refractor 72/99 Alex McFarlane Auto ji9PASS
- $68.492022 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Aqua Lava Refractor 51/199 Alex McFarlane Auto ji9PASS
- —Alex McFarlane Auto 2022 Bowman Draft #CDA-AME Chrome Aqua Lava /199PASS
- $56.992022 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Purple Refractor 43/250 Alex McFarlane Auto ji9PASS
- $19.602022 1st Bowman Draft RC AUTO Alex McFarlane #CDA-AME! Phillies Rookie AutographPASS
- $40.312022 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Refractor /499 Alex McFarlane #CDA-AME Auto 6a7PASS
- —2022 1st Bowman Draft BLUE Wave RC AUTO Alex McFarlane! Rookie! Autograph /150PASS
- —2022 1st Bowman Draft BLUE Wave RC AUTO Alex McFarlane! Rookie! Autograph /150PASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- What a modeled fair value means — at least one value on this page was modeled rather than taken from a sale
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run