Tanner McDougal
SP · Charlotte Knights · Charlotte Knights · Triple-A · 23.0y · #1974 of 7,942 we rate
Next: Tue 10:35 PM at Gwinnett Stripers
- The player
- FRINGE
- The market
- Below market
- What to do
- Watch
52 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
His best base card asks $14 against the $17 that card has sold in.
These sell around $17.00 and this is $14.00 delivered.
Our take
Fringe prospect, and the market has not caught up.
Tanner McDougal scores 52 out of 100 (#1974 of the 7,942 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +3.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 98% of the players there.
His core Bowman card has been selling at $13–21 off 1 confirmed sale.
The price is below the sold band, but the player behind it is not one we rate highly. A cheap card of a weak prospect is still a weak position.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: pitcher — injury risk is materially higher and the resale market is smaller, which is why the strategy caps what share of a book pitchers can take.
The signal
Young for the level
+3.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 98% of the players there.
Control: below average
14.9% BB — walk rate, inverted — lower is better from the mound
K-BB% slipping
16.1% last season to 9.7% this one.
Strikeouts slipping
28.7% last season to 24.6% this one.
Stuff: above average
24.6% K — strikeout rate per batter faced — never per nine innings, which flatters a pitcher who allows more baserunners Better than 62% at his level.
Moved up and held it
High-A to Triple-A.
Why now
7 new copies listed this week
Fresh supply on this exact card. More choice, and more downward pressure.
What could go wrong
Pitcher
Injury risk is materially higher and the resale market is smaller, which is why the strategy caps what share of a book pitchers can take.
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how raw base 1st bowman chrome auto sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-TM — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 8 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
$12.75–21.25midpoint $17.00
Evidence limited· 1 salemost recent 2026-08-22 · 12 listed now
- 7 days
- not enough sales
- 30 days
- not enough sales
- 90 days
- not enough sales
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-TM
Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto
The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 8 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Base$14.00delivered
2022 1st Bowman Chrome RC AUTO Tanner McDougal! White Sox! Rookie! Autograph! — $14 delivered, 18% under the $17 that copies of this exact card have confirmed sold in.
See it on eBayWhat would make this a buy
- On his best-priced card: evidence still thin.
- A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.
What is for sale right now
21 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 21 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 15 are under "The whole live market".
2022 1st Bowman Chrome RC AUTO Tanner McDougal! White Sox! Rookie! Autograph!
base · raw · condition not stated · listed 3d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
$14.00
sold $17
WATCH · 18% under
2022 1st Bowman Chrome RC AUTO Tanner McDougal! White Sox! Rookie! Autograph!
base · raw · condition not stated · listed 23d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 94h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$15.60
sold $17
WATCH · 8% under
2022 1st Bowman Chrome GREEN RC AUTO Tanner McDougal! Rookie! Autograph! /99
/99 · raw · condition not stated · listed 3d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 64h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$66.50
modeled $13.77–53.55
PASS
Tanner McDougal Auto 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st /99 Green Sapphire Auto CPA-TM
/99 · raw · condition not stated · listed 6d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 98h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$75.98
modeled $13.77–53.55
PASS
2022 1st Bowman Chrome BLUE Mojo RC AUTO Tanner McDougal! Rookie! Autograph /150
/150 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 1d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
$35.55
modeled $11.48–44.63
PASS
2022 1st Bowman Chrome BLUE Mojo RC AUTO Tanner McDougal! Rookie! Autograph /150
/150 · raw · condition not stated · listed 3d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 64h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$56.00
modeled $11.48–44.63
PASS
What the same money buys today
Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Tanner McDougal, just what the money can do today.
- Cole Carriggbase$11.80Watch55% under fair value
Compared within $7.00–$14.70, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 59 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder7 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $14.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $14.00 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $35.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $35.00 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +150%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Purple /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $46.20, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $46.20 live
- Scarcity
- 250 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +32%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Blue Mojo /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $35.55, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $35.55 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -23%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Green /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $66.50, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $66.50 live
- Scarcity
- 99 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +87%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Green Refractor /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $72.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $72.00 live
- Scarcity
- 99 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +8%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Sapphire /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $75.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $75.98 live
- Scarcity
- 99 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +6%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
What he is good atSkills 48 on the 20–80 scale, against 907 pitchers at Triple-A
What he is good at
skills overall 48 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 907 pitchers at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Stuff
Does he miss bats?
53
above average · better than 62% at his level
24.6% K
strikeout rate per batter faced — never per nine innings, which flatters a pitcher who allows more baserunners
Command
Bats missed AND strikes thrown?
48
average · better than 42% at his level
9.7% K-BB
strikeouts minus walks — the gap that survives a promotion
Control
Does he give away bases?
44
below average · better than 26% at his level
14.9% BB
walk rate, inverted — lower is better from the mound
Run prevention
Do the runs stay off the board?
54
above average · better than 64% at his level · the result, not a skill
1.37 WHIP
walks and hits per inning, inverted — the result, and the defence behind him is in it too
Workload
Is he carrying a starter's innings?
55
above average · better than 68% at his level · context, not a skill
39.1 IP
innings carried — a starter's bulk is worth what a reliever's is not
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
71
plus-plus · better than 98% at his level · context, not a skill
+3.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 3 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 43th percentile of the cohort, run prevention at the 64th — his results run further ahead of his tools than 86% of the players he is measured against.
The stat line is doing the selling and the skills underneath it are not carrying it. Pay for the line and you are paying for the part that does not repeat.
How this is read: his skills average 43 and his run prevention sits at 64, a gap of -21. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 907 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 14th percentile.
Will he get there?
Real chance 6.5 / 10
- already at Triple-A
- pitcher — more of them break down before they arrive
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.
How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 907 other pitchers at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
BF
175
IP
39.1
ERA
4.12
WHIP
1.37
K-BB%
9.7
better than 42%
K%
24.6
BB%
14.9
HR9
1.37
GS
6
Is this player getting better?
Down from 16.1% to 9.7% K-BB, but that came with a move up to Triple-A — a step back at a harder level is normal.
Moved up from High-A to Triple-A — the pitching is harder this year.
K-BB%
16.1%▼9.7%
Strikeouts
28.7%▼24.6%
Walks
12.6%▲14.9%
WHIP
1.47▼1.37
ERA
3.28▲4.12
Last season, 254 batters faced. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market21 listed · 21 eBay-verified · 15 not shown above
- Listings
- 21
- Lowest live
- $14.00
- Median ask
- $40.88
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $14.00
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $35.00
21 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 1 day ago.
The other 15 cards
- $46.202022 1st Bowman Chrome PURPLE RC AUTO Tanner McDougal! Rookie! Autograph /250PASS
- —2022 Bowman Chrome Purple Refractor Auto Tanner McDougal /250 1st Bowman AutoPASS
- $35.002022 1st Bowman Chrome REFRACTOR RC AUTO Tanner McDougal! Rookie! Autograph /499PASS
- $56.992022 Bowman Chrome Tanner McDougal 1st Auto Refractor /499 - Chicago White SoxPASS
- —Tanner McDougal 2022 Bowman Chrome #CPA-TM 1st Prospect AutoPASS
- —2022 Bowman Chrome Tanner McDougal #CPA-TM 1st Chrome Auto Chicago White SoxPASS
- $20.99Tanner McDougal 2022 Bowman Chrome #CPA-TM 1st Prospect AUTO WHITE SOXWATCH
- $29.48Tanner McDougal 2022 Bowman Chrome #CPA-TM 1st Prospect AutoPASS
- —2022 Bowman Chrome Auto Tanner McDougal 1st Bowman AutoPASS
- —2022 Bowman Chrome Tanner McDougal 1st Bowman Auto CPA-TM White SoxPASS
- —2022 Bowman Chrome Auto Tanner McDougal 1st Bowman AutoPASS
- —2022 Bowman Chrome Auto Tanner McDougal 1st Bowman AutoPASS
- —2022 Bowman Chrome Tanner McDougal 1st Bowman Auto CPA-TM White SoxPASS
- —Tanner McDougal 1st Bowman Chrome Auto 2022 Bowman Chrome Autographs #CPA-TMPASS
- $72.002022 Bowman Chrome Tanner McDougal Chicago White Sox Green Refractor Auto /99PASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- What a modeled fair value means — at least one value on this page was modeled rather than taken from a sale
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run