Riley Greene
LF · Toledo Mud Hens · Toledo Mud Hens · Triple-A · 25.0y · #5092 of 7,942 we rate
Next: Tue 10:35 PM vs Indianapolis Indians
- The player
- LONG SHOT
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Watch
34 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
11 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
We can't see what this costs all in, so there's nothing to judge yet.
Our take
Long-shot prospect, untested market.
Riley Greene scores 34 out of 100 (#5092 of the 7,942 we score), and the case rests on one thing: plate discipline: plus-plus — 25.0% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 98% at his level.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 8 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
The signal
Power: well below
.000 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline: plus-plus
25.0% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 98% at his level.
Bat-first profile
LF — there is no defensive value to fall back on, so the bat has to play.
Contact: plus
12.5% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 91% at his level.
What the hobby pays up for
Little power for his level (9th percentile); 25.0 is old for a prospect card.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Small sample
8 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
Corner-only profile
LF carries no defensive fallback — if the bat does not play, there is no version of this that works.
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
What the hobby pays for him
A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.
Benchmark not yet established — benchmark not computed yet. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, Base at $100.00 — the numbered ones cost more than they are worth, on print run alone. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.
What would make this a buy
- On his best-priced card: past the window.
- A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.
What is for sale right now
11 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 11 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 5 are under "The whole live market".
2020 Bowman Chrome RILEY GREENE Mega Box Auto PSA 10 #BMA-RG
Green · PSA 10 · listed 4d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$100.00
modeled ~$24.00
WATCH
2019 Bowman Chrome Draft Riley Greene 1st Auto (AU, RC) Detroit Tigers
Green · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 1d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
$149.94
modeled ~$5.99
WATCH
2019 Bowman Chrome Draft Riley Greene Auto BGS 9.5 CDA-RG 1st Bowman
Green · BGS 9.5 · takes offers · listed 1205d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
$373.96
no sold price
WATCH
2019 Riley Greene Bowman Chrome Gold Refractor Auto /50 BGS 9/10
/50 · BGS 9 · takes offers · listed 6d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$1726.24
no sold price
WATCH
2023 Bowman Chrome Riley Greene Superfractor 1/1 Auto ROY Favorites PSA 9 RC
1/1 · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 850d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$5005.98
modeled ~$35.99
WATCH
Riley Greene 2020 Bowman Chrome Auto Signed Superfractor 1/1 1990 Bowman
1/1 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 1515d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$5998.99
modeled ~$5.99
WATCH
What the same money buys today
Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Riley Greene, just what the money can do today.
- Walker Jenkinsbase$67.98Watch
- Rainiel Rodriguezbase$69.99Buy46% under fair value
- Josue Briceñobase$94.50Watch6% under fair value
Compared within $50.00–$105.00, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder1 version of his cards in psa 9 autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing PSA 9 autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- Superfractor 1/1THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $5005.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $5005.98 live
- Scarcity
- 1 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
7 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 54 on the 20–80 scale, against 741 hitters at Triple-A
What he is good at
skills overall 54 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 741 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
63
plus · better than 91% at his level
12.5% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
37
well below · better than 9% at his level
.000 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
71
plus-plus · better than 98% at his level
25.0% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
44
below average · better than 29% at his level
0 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
38
well below · better than 12% at his level · the result, not a skill
.542 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
52
average · better than 59% at his level · context, not a skill
0.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 57th percentile of the cohort, production at the 12th — his tools run further ahead of his results than 99% of the players he is measured against.
The market prices the stat line, and his is behind what he is doing. That is where a card is cheap for a reason that can change.
How this is read: his skills average 57 and his production sits at 12, a gap of +45. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 731 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 99th percentile.
Will he get there?
Real chance 6.6 / 10
- already at Triple-A
- old for Triple-A
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 76% of what it wants to know — missing production, form.
How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 741 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
8
AVG
.167
OBP
.375
SLG
.167
OPS
.542
better than 12%
HR
0
SB
0
BB%
25.0
K%
12.5
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market11 listed · 11 eBay-verified · 5 not shown above
- Listings
- 11
- Lowest seen
- $100.00
- Median ask
- $373.96
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $149.94
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- —
11 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 2 hours ago.
The other 5 cards
- —2019 Bowman Draft Chrome Refractor 1st Riley Greene Auto /499 PSA 9WATCH
- —Riley Greene 2019 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Auto RC Purple Refractor /250 - PSA 9WATCH
- —Riley Greene 2019 Bowman Chrome Draft 1st Auto Refractor /499 RC #CDA-RG - PSA 9WATCH
- $357.952019 Bowman Draft Riley Greene 1st Green Refractor Auto /99 BGS 9.5 Auto 10WATCH
- —2019 Bowman Draft Riley Greene Chrome Auto /150PASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run