Ben Hernandez
SP · Everett AquaSox · Everett AquaSox · High-A · 25.0y · #7745 of 7,942 we rate
Next: Wed 1:35 AM at Spokane Indians
- The player
- LONG SHOT
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Watch
2 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
10 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Nobody has logged a completed sale for this card, so we can't say what it's worth.
Our take
Long-shot prospect, untested market.
Ben Hernandez scores 2 out of 100 (#7745 of the 7,942 we score), and the case rests on one thing: control: above average — 11.4% BB — walk rate, inverted — lower is better from the mound Better than 62% at his level.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: age for the level — -2.0y vs his level at High-A puts him younger than only 20% of the cohort. The clock is a real cost on a prospect card.
The signal
Old for the level
-2.0y vs his level at High-A — younger than only 20% of the players there.
Stuff: well below
15.8% K — strikeout rate per batter faced — never per nine innings, which flatters a pitcher who allows more baserunners
K-BB% slipping
8.2% last season to 4.4% this one.
Strikeouts slipping
20.1% last season to 15.8% this one.
Control: above average
11.4% BB — walk rate, inverted — lower is better from the mound Better than 62% at his level.
What the hobby pays up for
SP sells at a discount at equal production; 25.0 is old for a prospect card.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Age for the level
-2.0y vs his level at High-A puts him younger than only 20% of the cohort. The clock is a real cost on a prospect card.
Pitcher
Injury risk is materially higher and the resale market is smaller, which is why the strategy caps what share of a book pitchers can take.
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2020 Bowman Draft 1st Auto BD-19 — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 2 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
No price on this card yet
sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 2 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2020 Bowman Draft 1st Auto BD-19
Raw base 1st Bowman Draft Chrome Auto
The draft-class equivalent of the canonical auto — same card kind, other product line. Identified from 2 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, /99 at $6.49 costs 0.65× base, and print run alone suggests 1.80×, with no measured sales to check it against — best balance available. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.
What would make this a buy
- On his best-priced card: past the window.
- A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.
What is for sale right now
10 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 10 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 4 are under "The whole live market".
BEN HERNANDEZ 2020 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST GREEN REFRACTOR AUTOGRAPH AUTO #'D /99 MLB
/99 · raw · condition not stated · listed 323d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 106h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$6.49
no sold price
WATCH
2020 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Refractor Auto /250 Ben Hernandez Royals Rookie RC
/250 · raw · condition not stated · listed 727d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 106h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
no sold price
WATCH
2020 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Refractor Auto 99/499 Ben Hernandez Royals RC
/499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 217d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 106h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$8.35
modeled ~$5.50
WATCH
2020 Bowman Chrome Ben Hernandez 1st Bowman Chrome Refractor Auto 97/499 #CDA-BH
/499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 1064d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 106h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$11.25
modeled ~$5.50
WATCH
2020 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Refractor Auto /499 Ben Hernandez Royals Rookie RC
/499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 67d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
—
modeled ~$7.50
WATCH
2020 Bowman Draft Chrome Ben Hernandez Auto Kansas City Royals #BD-19 1st Card
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 422d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 106h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$9.99
modeled ~$2.99
WATCH
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder5 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $9.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $9.99 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $8.35, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $8.35 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -16%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Blue Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $14.73, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $14.73 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +76%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Blue Wave Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $15.58, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $15.58 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +6%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Green Refractor /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $6.49, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $6.49 live
- Scarcity
- 99 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -58%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
What he is good atSkills 45 on the 20–80 scale, against 620 pitchers at High-A
What he is good at
skills overall 45 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 620 pitchers at High-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Stuff
Does he miss bats?
39
well below · better than 13% at his level
15.8% K
strikeout rate per batter faced — never per nine innings, which flatters a pitcher who allows more baserunners
Command
Bats missed AND strikes thrown?
43
below average · better than 25% at his level
4.4% K-BB
strikeouts minus walks — the gap that survives a promotion
Control
Does he give away bases?
53
above average · better than 62% at his level
11.4% BB
walk rate, inverted — lower is better from the mound
Run prevention
Do the runs stay off the board?
50
average · better than 50% at his level · the result, not a skill
1.56 WHIP
walks and hits per inning, inverted — the result, and the defence behind him is in it too
Workload
Is he carrying a starter's innings?
49
average · better than 46% at his level · context, not a skill
25.2 IP
innings carried — a starter's bulk is worth what a reliever's is not
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
42
below average · better than 20% at his level · context, not a skill
-2.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 3 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 33th percentile of the cohort, run prevention at the 50th — his results run further ahead of his tools than 84% of the players he is measured against.
The stat line is doing the selling and the skills underneath it are not carrying it. Pay for the line and you are paying for the part that does not repeat.
How this is read: his skills average 33 and his run prevention sits at 50, a gap of -17. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 620 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 16th percentile.
Will he get there?
Long shot 3.0 / 10
- old for High-A
- pitcher — more of them break down before they arrive
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 76% of what it wants to know — missing production, form.
How he is playingThe High-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 620 other pitchers at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
BF
114
IP
25.2
ERA
5.61
WHIP
1.56
K-BB%
4.4
better than 25%
K%
15.8
BB%
11.4
HR9
1.05
GS
0
Is this player getting better?
Down from 8.2% to 4.4% K-BB this season.
Still at High-A, the same level as last season.
K-BB%
8.2%▼4.4%
Strikeouts
20.1%▼15.8%
Walks
11.9%→11.4%
WHIP
1.37▲1.56
ERA
3.46▲5.61
Last season, 244 batters faced. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market10 listed · 0 eBay-verified · 4 not shown above
- Listings
- 10
- Lowest seen
- $6.49
- Median ask
- $10.62
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $6.49
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $6.49
0 eBay-verified
The other 4 cards
- —Ben Hernandez 2020 Bowman Draft Chrome 🔥 Auto 1st Bowman 🔥 Royals ProspectWATCH
- $14.732020 Bowman Draft Chrome Picks Blue Refractor 119/150 Ben Hernandez Auto 0z8yWATCH
- $15.582020 Bowman Draft Chrome Picks Blue Wave Refractor /150 Ben Hernandez Auto 1q6uWATCH
- —Topps 2020 Bowman Draft Ben Hernandez Royals Chrome Auto Refractor /499 CDA-BHWATCH
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run