Sam Weatherly
SP · Hartford Yard Goats · Hartford Yard Goats · Double-A · 27.0y · #5433 of 7,942 we rate
Next: Tue 10:30 PM vs Reading Fightin Phils
- The player
- LONG SHOT
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Watch
26 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
1 card of his is listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Nobody has logged a completed sale for this card, so we can't say what it's worth.
Our take
Long-shot prospect, untested market.
Sam Weatherly scores 26 out of 100 (#5433 of the 7,942 we score), and the case rests on one thing: stuff: above average — 25.2% K — strikeout rate per batter faced — never per nine innings, which flatters a pitcher who allows more baserunners Better than 62% at his level.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: age for the level — -3.0y vs his level at Double-A puts him younger than only 18% of the cohort. The clock is a real cost on a prospect card.
The signal
Old for the level
-3.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than only 18% of the players there.
Strikeouts slipping
28.0% last season to 25.2% this one.
The case is fading
Baseball momentum 33/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.
Stuff: above average
25.2% K — strikeout rate per batter faced — never per nine innings, which flatters a pitcher who allows more baserunners Better than 62% at his level.
What the hobby pays up for
SP sells at a discount at equal production; 27.0 is old for a prospect card.
K-BB% improving
9.4% last season to 12.2% this one.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Age for the level
-3.0y vs his level at Double-A puts him younger than only 18% of the cohort. The clock is a real cost on a prospect card.
Pitcher
Injury risk is materially higher and the resale market is smaller, which is why the strategy caps what share of a book pitchers can take.
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
What the hobby pays for him
A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.
Benchmark not yet established — candidates seen, none corroborated by enough sellers. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, Base at $7.17 — the numbered ones cost more than they are worth, on print run alone. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.
What would make this a buy
- On his best-priced card: past the window.
- A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.
What is for sale right now
1 card of his is listed · 0 of the 1 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 1 worth looking at, best first.
Sam Weatherly Signed Auto 2020 bowman Chrome 1st Colorado Rockies BD-109
base · raw · condition not stated · listed 81d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 95h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$7.17
modeled ~$3.25
WATCH
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder1 version of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $7.17, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $7.17 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
What he is good atSkills 50 on the 20–80 scale, against 567 pitchers at Double-A
What he is good at
skills overall 50 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 567 pitchers at Double-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Stuff
Does he miss bats?
53
above average · better than 62% at his level
25.2% K
strikeout rate per batter faced — never per nine innings, which flatters a pitcher who allows more baserunners
Command
Bats missed AND strikes thrown?
51
average · better than 54% at his level
12.2% K-BB
strikeouts minus walks — the gap that survives a promotion
Control
Does he give away bases?
47
average · better than 40% at his level
13.0% BB
walk rate, inverted — lower is better from the mound
Run prevention
Do the runs stay off the board?
42
below average · better than 20% at his level · the result, not a skill
1.94 WHIP
walks and hits per inning, inverted — the result, and the defence behind him is in it too
Workload
Is he carrying a starter's innings?
55
above average · better than 69% at his level · context, not a skill
47.1 IP
innings carried — a starter's bulk is worth what a reliever's is not
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
41
well below · better than 18% at his level · context, not a skill
-3.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 3 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 52th percentile of the cohort, run prevention at the 20th — his tools run further ahead of his results than 94% of the players he is measured against.
The market prices the stat line, and his is behind what he is doing. That is where a card is cheap for a reason that can change.
How this is read: his skills average 52 and his run prevention sits at 20, a gap of +32. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 566 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 94th percentile.
Will he get there?
Long shot 4.3 / 10
- already at Double-A
- old for Double-A
- pitcher — more of them break down before they arrive
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.
How he is playingThe Double-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 567 other pitchers at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
BF
230
IP
47.1
ERA
8.94
WHIP
1.94
K-BB%
12.2
better than 54%
K%
25.2
BB%
13.0
HR9
2.85
GS
6
Is this player getting better?
Missing more bats and walking fewer batters than last season — 9.4% up to 12.2% K-BB.
Still at Double-A, the same level as last season.
K-BB%
9.4%▲12.2%
Strikeouts
28.0%▼25.2%
Walks
18.6%▼13.0%
WHIP
1.83▲1.94
ERA
8.06▲8.94
Last season, 236 batters faced. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market1 listed · 1 eBay-verified
- Listings
- 1
- Lowest seen
- $7.17
- Median ask
- $7.17
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $7.17
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- —
1 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 3 days ago.
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same