Eric Orze
SP · St. Paul Saints · St. Paul Saints · Triple-A · 29.0y · #4555 of 7,942 we rate
Next: Tue 11:35 PM at Omaha Storm Chasers
- The player
- LONG SHOT
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Watch
33 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
10 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Nobody has logged a completed sale for this card, so we can't say what it's worth.
Our take
Long-shot prospect, untested market.
Eric Orze scores 33 out of 100 (#4555 of the 7,942 we score), and the case rests on one thing: control: plus-plus — 3.9% BB — walk rate, inverted — lower is better from the mound Better than 94% at his level.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 51 batters faced this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
The signal
Old for the level
-3.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than only 19% of the players there.
Stuff: below average
19.6% K — strikeout rate per batter faced — never per nine innings, which flatters a pitcher who allows more baserunners
K-BB% slipping
23.9% last season to 15.7% this one.
Strikeouts slipping
32.7% last season to 19.6% this one.
Control: plus-plus
3.9% BB — walk rate, inverted — lower is better from the mound Better than 94% at his level.
Command: above average
15.7% K-BB — strikeouts minus walks — the gap that survives a promotion Better than 72% at his level.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Small sample
51 batters faced this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
Age for the level
-3.0y vs his level at Triple-A puts him younger than only 19% of the cohort. The clock is a real cost on a prospect card.
Pitcher
Injury risk is materially higher and the resale market is smaller, which is why the strategy caps what share of a book pitchers can take.
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
What the hobby pays for him
A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.
Benchmark not yet established — candidates seen, none corroborated by enough sellers. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, /250 at $10.99 costs 1.26× base, and print run alone suggests 1.30×, with no measured sales to check it against — best balance available. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.
What would make this a buy
- On his best-priced card: past the window.
- A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.
What is for sale right now
10 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 10 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 4 are under "The whole live market".
2020 1st Bowman Chrome Draft Eric Orze Rookie Auto Purple /250 #CDA-EO Mint
/250 · raw · listed 93d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 95h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$10.99
no sold price
WATCH
ERIC ORZE 2020 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST RC AUTO #CDA-EO
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 427d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 95h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$13.99
modeled ~$3.00
WATCH
2020 Bowman Draft Chrome Picks Black Refractor /75 Eric Orze #CDA-EO Auto 3hd
/75 · raw · condition not stated · listed 6d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$30.53
no sold price
WATCH
2020 Bowman Draft Chrome Picks Sparkle Refractor 6/71 Eric Orze Auto 0e3u
/71 · raw · condition not stated · listed 5d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$56.63
no sold price
WATCH
2020 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Picks Refractor /499 Eric Orze #CDA-EO Auto 1kh1
/499 · raw · condition not stated · listed 6d
Not a core card · 4 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$12.13
modeled ~$7.50
WATCH
2020 Bowman Draft Chrome Picks Refractor 350/499 Eric Orze #CDA-EO Auto 7uo
/499 · raw · condition not stated · listed 5d
Not a core card · 4 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$13.87
modeled ~$7.50
WATCH
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder5 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $8.69, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $8.69 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $12.13, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $12.13 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +40%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Purple /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $10.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $10.99 live
- Scarcity
- 250 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -9%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Refractor /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $30.53, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $30.53 live
- Scarcity
- 75 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +178%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Sparkle Refractor /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $56.63, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $56.63 live
- Scarcity
- 71 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +86%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
What he is good atSkills 56 on the 20–80 scale, against 907 pitchers at Triple-A
What he is good at
skills overall 56 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 907 pitchers at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Stuff
Does he miss bats?
45
below average · better than 31% at his level
19.6% K
strikeout rate per batter faced — never per nine innings, which flatters a pitcher who allows more baserunners
Command
Bats missed AND strikes thrown?
56
above average · better than 72% at his level
15.7% K-BB
strikeouts minus walks — the gap that survives a promotion
Control
Does he give away bases?
66
plus-plus · better than 94% at his level
3.9% BB
walk rate, inverted — lower is better from the mound
Run prevention
Do the runs stay off the board?
68
plus-plus · better than 96% at his level · the result, not a skill
0.73 WHIP
walks and hits per inning, inverted — the result, and the defence behind him is in it too
Workload
Is he carrying a starter's innings?
46
below average · better than 34% at his level · context, not a skill
13.2 IP
innings carried — a starter's bulk is worth what a reliever's is not
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
41
well below · better than 19% at his level · context, not a skill
-3.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 3 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 66th percentile of the cohort, run prevention at the 96th — his results run further ahead of his tools than 92% of the players he is measured against.
The stat line is doing the selling and the skills underneath it are not carrying it. Pay for the line and you are paying for the part that does not repeat.
How this is read: his skills average 66 and his run prevention sits at 96, a gap of -30. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 907 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 8th percentile.
Will he get there?
Real chance 5.3 / 10
- already at Triple-A
- old for Triple-A
- pitcher — more of them break down before they arrive
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 76% of what it wants to know — missing production, form.
How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 907 other pitchers at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
BF
51
IP
13.2
ERA
2.63
WHIP
0.73
K-BB%
15.7
better than 72%
K%
19.6
BB%
3.9
HR9
1.32
GS
0
Is this player getting better?
Down from 23.9% to 15.7% K-BB this season.
Still at Triple-A, the same level as last season.
K-BB%
23.9%▼15.7%
Strikeouts
32.7%▼19.6%
Walks
8.8%▼3.9%
WHIP
1.01▼0.73
ERA
2.20▲2.63
Last season, 113 batters faced. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market10 listed · 10 eBay-verified · 4 not shown above
- Listings
- 10
- Lowest seen
- $8.69
- Median ask
- $15.08
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $10.99
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $10.99
10 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 2 days ago.
The other 4 cards
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run