Bryce Miller
SP · Tacoma Rainiers · Tacoma Rainiers · Triple-A · 28.0y · #6218 of 7,942 we rate
Next: Wed 12:35 AM at Albuquerque Isotopes
- The player
- LONG SHOT
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Watch
20 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
8 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Nobody has logged a completed sale for this card, so we can't say what it's worth.
Our take
Long-shot prospect, untested market.
Bryce Miller scores 20 out of 100 (#6218 of the 7,942 we score), and the case rests on one thing: what the hobby pays up for — SP sells at a discount at equal production; 28.0 is old for a prospect card.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 25 batters faced this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
The signal
K-BB% slipping
24.0% last season to 12.0% this one.
Strikeouts slipping
30.0% last season to 24.0% this one.
What the hobby pays up for
SP sells at a discount at equal production; 28.0 is old for a prospect card.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Small sample
25 batters faced this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
Pitcher
Injury risk is materially higher and the resale market is smaller, which is why the strategy caps what share of a book pitchers can take.
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2021 Bowman Draft 1st Auto — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 3 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
No price on this card yet
sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 3 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2021 Bowman Draft 1st Auto
Raw base 1st Bowman Draft Chrome Auto
The draft-class equivalent of the canonical auto — same card kind, other product line. Identified from 3 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, Base at $21.98 — the numbered ones cost more than they are worth, on print run alone. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.
What would make this a buy
- On his best-priced card: past the window.
- A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.
What is for sale right now
8 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 8 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 2 are under "The whole live market".
2021 Bowman Chrome Bryce Miller True Gold Refractor Auto /50 1st Mariners SSP
/50 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 79d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
$283.00
no sold price
WATCH
2021 Bryce Miller 1st Bowman Chrome Auto Aqua Lava Refractor /199 RC PSA 9
/199 · PSA 9 · listed 108d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
$374.97
no sold price
WATCH
Bryce Miller 2021 BOWMAN CHROME DRAFT 1ST BLACK REFRACTOR AUTO/75 Mariners
/75 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 581d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
—
no sold price
WATCH
Bryce Miller 2021 Bowman Chrome Draft Purple Refractor Auto /250 1st Prospect RC
/250 · raw · condition not stated · listed 1d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
$41.49
modeled ~$7.50
WATCH
2021 Bowman Draft Bryce Miller Chrome Auto 1st Signed #BDC-64 Mariners GTP
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 12d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 112h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$21.98
modeled ~$3.00
WATCH
2021 Topps Bowman Chrome Draft Pick Bryce Miller #CDA-BMI 1st Auto Mariners
base · raw · condition not stated · listed 14d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 112h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$25.00
modeled ~$3.00
WATCH
What the same money buys today
Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Bryce Miller, just what the money can do today.
- Cole CarriggRefractor$14.98Watch42% under fair value
Compared within $10.99–$23.08, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder4 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $21.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $21.98 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $41.49, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $41.49 live
- Scarcity
- 250 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +89%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Gold Refractor /50THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $263.59, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $263.59 live
- Scarcity
- 50 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +535%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - True Gold Refractor /50THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $283.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $283.00 live
- Scarcity
- 50 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +7%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
1 listing sits in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 51 on the 20–80 scale, against 907 pitchers at Triple-A
What he is good at
skills overall 51 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 907 pitchers at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Stuff
Does he miss bats?
52
average · better than 58% at his level
24.0% K
strikeout rate per batter faced — never per nine innings, which flatters a pitcher who allows more baserunners
Command
Bats missed AND strikes thrown?
51
average · better than 54% at his level
12.0% K-BB
strikeouts minus walks — the gap that survives a promotion
Control
Does he give away bases?
49
average · better than 47% at his level
12.0% BB
walk rate, inverted — lower is better from the mound
Run prevention
Do the runs stay off the board?
48
average · better than 43% at his level · the result, not a skill
1.59 WHIP
walks and hits per inning, inverted — the result, and the defence behind him is in it too
Workload
Is he carrying a starter's innings?
41
well below · better than 18% at his level · context, not a skill
5.2 IP
innings carried — a starter's bulk is worth what a reliever's is not
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
46
below average · better than 33% at his level · context, not a skill
-2.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 3 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 53th percentile of the cohort, run prevention at the 43th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.
Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.
How this is read: his skills average 53 and his run prevention sits at 43, a gap of +10. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 907 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 73th percentile.
Will he get there?
Real chance 5.3 / 10
- already at Triple-A
- old for Triple-A
- pitcher — more of them break down before they arrive
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 76% of what it wants to know — missing production, form.
How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 907 other pitchers at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
BF
25
IP
5.2
ERA
4.76
WHIP
1.59
K-BB%
12.0
better than 54%
K%
24.0
BB%
12.0
HR9
0.00
GS
2
Is this player getting better?
Down from 24.0% to 12.0% K-BB this season — but last season was a small sample, so go easy on it.
Still at Triple-A, the same level as last season.
K-BB%
24.0%▼12.0%
Strikeouts
30.0%▼24.0%
Walks
6.0%▲12.0%
WHIP
0.75▲1.59
ERA
4.05▲4.76
Last season, 50 batters faced — a small enough sample that these gaps might just be luck. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market8 listed · 0 eBay-verified · 2 not shown above
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run