Shane McClanahan
SP · Durham Bulls · Triple-A · 29.0y · #2978 of 7,949 we rate
- The player
- FRINGE
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Watch
45 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
21 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Nobody has logged a completed sale for this card, so we can't say what it's worth.
Our take
Fringe prospect, untested market.
Shane McClanahan scores 45 out of 100 (#2978 of the 7,949 we score), and the case rests on one thing: control: elite — 0.0% BB — walk rate, inverted — lower is better from the mound Better than 100% at his level.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 9 batters faced this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
The signal
Old for the level
-3.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than only 20% of the players there.
Strikeouts slipping
26.7% last season to 22.2% this one.
Control: elite
0.0% BB — walk rate, inverted — lower is better from the mound Better than 100% at his level.
Command: plus
22.2% K-BB — strikeouts minus walks — the gap that survives a promotion Better than 88% at his level.
What the hobby pays up for
SP sells at a discount at equal production; 29.0 is old for a prospect card.
K-BB% improving
20.0% last season to 22.2% this one.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Small sample
9 batters faced this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
Age for the level
-3.0y vs his level at Triple-A puts him younger than only 20% of the cohort. The clock is a real cost on a prospect card.
Pitcher
Injury risk is materially higher and the resale market is smaller, which is why the strategy caps what share of a book pitchers can take.
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
Baseball vs card market
INSUFFICIENT MARKET EVIDENCE- The baseball
- trajectory unmeasured
- The cards
- no measurable move
Why this divergence exists
We have not measured his baseball trajectory, so there is nothing to set the card market against.
Compare him with every player whose baseball has outrun his cards.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2018 Bowman Draft 1st Auto — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 5 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
No price on this card yet
sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 6 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
Best Bowman card to own
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2018 Bowman Draft 1st Auto
Raw base 1st Bowman Draft Chrome Auto
Identity: likelyValuation: insufficient evidence
The draft-class equivalent of the canonical auto — same card kind, other product line. Identified from 5 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Secondary and avoid: 2 live listings are a certified auto that is not (or not provably) his 1st Bowman Chrome — a later or lesser vehicle, ranked below the canonical card whatever its serial number.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, Base at $20.75 — the numbered ones cost more than they are worth, on print run alone. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.
Live listings that fit the thesis
Ranked by card fit, identity and listing quality — never by what pays us, and never cheapest-first.
- 1Shane McClanahan 2018 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Bowman Auto #CDA-SM RaysCore 1st auto · matches his benchmark series · no valuation · best offer$21.35See listing
- 22018 Bowman Draft Shane McClanahan Chrome Auto 1st Prospect #CDA-SM RaysCore 1st auto · matches his benchmark series · no valuation · best offer$35.98See listing
- 32018 Bowman Draft Shane McClanahan Chrome Auto 1st Prospect #CDA-SM RaysCore 1st auto · matches his benchmark series · no valuation$20.75See listing
What would make this a buy
- On his best-priced card: past the window.
- A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.
What is for sale right now
21 cards of his are listed, 2 held back on condition or a broken price · 0 of the 19 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 13 are under "The whole live market".
Shane McClanahan 2018 Bowman Chrome 1st Refractor Auto /499 CGC 10/10 #CDA-SM
/499 · CGC 10 · listed 9d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 145h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$55.99
no sold price
WATCH
Shane McClanahan 2018 Bowman Chrome 1st Black Refractor Auto /75 CGC 9/10
/75 · CGC 9 · listed 9d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 145h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$155.99
no sold price
WATCH
Shane McClanahan 2018 Bowman Chrome 1st Sparkle Refractor Auto /71 CGC 9/10
/71 · CGC 9 · listed 9d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 145h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$205.99
no sold price
WATCH
2018 Bowman Chrome Draft Shane McClanahan 1st Bowman Auto Pros Card, Sparkle /71
/71 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 803d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
$330.00
no sold price
WATCH
2018 Bowman Chrome Shane McClanahan Orange Refractor /25 1st Prospect Auto RC
/25 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 16d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 148h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$404.98
no sold price
WATCH
Shane McClanahan 1st Bowman Auto 2018 Bowman Draft Chrome Sparkle /71 PSA 9 Rays
/71 · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 336d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
—
no sold price
WATCH
What the same money buys today
Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Shane McClanahan, just what the money can do today.
- Cole CarriggRefractor$14.98Watch42% under fair value
Compared within $10.38–$21.79, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
Catalyst timelineno logged or derived event yet
No event on his timeline yet — no logged promotion, call-up or injury, and no level change between the two seasons we hold. Derived events appear as stat lines land; logged ones appear with their source.
Every event on the catalyst tracker carries the same grade.
His canonical cardsno card identity established yet
A card reaches verified only from a checklist source. A seller's title can make it likely when independent sellers agree, and never more. Cards with a page of their own link to it.
No card identity has been established for him yet. A card enters this list when independent sellers describe the same card the same way or a confirmed sale names it — a single seller's title never does.
The parallel ladder5 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $20.75, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $20.75 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $89.48, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $89.48 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +331%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Green /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $80.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $80.99 live
- Scarcity
- 99 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -10%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Sparkle /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $330.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $330.00 live
- Scarcity
- 71 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +308%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Orange Refractor /25 and underTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $404.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $404.98 live
- Scarcity
- 25 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +23%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
8 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 64 on the 20–80 scale, against 910 pitchers at Triple-A
What he is good at
skills overall 64 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 910 pitchers at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Stuff
Does he miss bats?
49
average · better than 47% at his level
22.2% K
strikeout rate per batter faced — never per nine innings, which flatters a pitcher who allows more baserunners
Command
Bats missed AND strikes thrown?
62
plus · better than 88% at his level
22.2% K-BB
strikeouts minus walks — the gap that survives a promotion
Control
Does he give away bases?
80
elite · better than 100% at his level
0.0% BB
walk rate, inverted — lower is better from the mound
Run prevention
Do the runs stay off the board?
80
elite · better than 100% at his level · the result, not a skill
0.00 WHIP
walks and hits per inning, inverted — the result, and the defence behind him is in it too
Workload
Is he carrying a starter's innings?
37
well below · better than 10% at his level · context, not a skill
3.0 IP
innings carried — a starter's bulk is worth what a reliever's is not
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
42
below average · better than 20% at his level · context, not a skill
-3.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 3 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 78th percentile of the cohort, run prevention at the 100th — his results run further ahead of his tools than 87% of the players he is measured against.
The stat line is doing the selling and the skills underneath it are not carrying it. Pay for the line and you are paying for the part that does not repeat.
How this is read: his skills average 78 and his run prevention sits at 100, a gap of -22. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 910 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 13th percentile.
Will he get there?
Real chance 5.3 / 10
- already at Triple-A
- old for Triple-A
- pitcher — more of them break down before they arrive
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 76% of what it wants to know — missing production, form.
How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 910 other pitchers at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
BF
9
IP
3.0
ERA
0.00
WHIP
0.00
K-BB%
22.2
better than 88%
K%
22.2
BB%
0.0
HR9
0.00
GS
1
Is this player getting better?
Missing more bats and walking fewer batters than last season — 20.0% up to 22.2% K-BB — but last season was a small sample, so go easy on it.
Still at Triple-A, the same level as last season.
K-BB%
20.0%▲22.2%
Strikeouts
26.7%▼22.2%
Walks
6.7%▼0.0%
WHIP
3.43▼0.00
ERA
15.43▼0.00
Last season, 15 batters faced — a small enough sample that these gaps might just be luck. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market21 listed · 0 eBay-verified · 13 not shown above
- Listings
- 21
- Lowest seen
- $20.75
- Median ask
- $48.49
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $20.75
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $55.99
0 eBay-verified
The other 13 cards
- $80.99Shane McClanahan 2018 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Bowman Auto Green /99 #CDA-SMWATCH
- $40.99Shane McClanahan 2018 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Bowman Auto CGC 10/10 #CDA-SM (B)WATCH
- $40.99Shane McClanahan 2018 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Bowman Auto CGC 10/10 #CDA-SM (C)WATCH
- $40.99Shane McClanahan 2018 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Bowman Auto CGC 10/10 #CDA-SM (A)WATCH
- $153.952018 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Refractor Shane McClanahan Rookie Auto 24/499 PSAWATCH
- $20.752018 Bowman Draft Shane McClanahan Chrome Auto 1st Prospect #CDA-SM RaysWATCH
- $20.752018 Bowman Draft Shane McClanahan Chrome Auto 1st Prospect #CDA-SM RaysWATCH
- $21.35Shane McClanahan 2018 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Bowman Auto #CDA-SM RaysWATCH
- $35.982018 Bowman Draft Shane McClanahan Chrome Auto 1st Prospect #CDA-SM RaysWATCH
- —2018 Bowman Draft Shane McClanahan Chrome Auto 1st Prospect #CDA-SM RaysWATCH
- —2018 Bowman Chrome Draft Shane McClanahan Signed 1st Bowman Card BDC-9 Rays AutoWATCH
- $89.482018 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Refractor /499 Shane McClanahan #CDA-SM Auto 0vf5WATCH
- $32.272018 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Shane McClanahan #CDA-SM Auto u5uWATCH
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run