Junior Fernández
SP · Nashville Sounds · Nashville Sounds · Triple-A · 29.0y · #6747 of 7,942 we rate
Next: Tue 11:35 PM vs Louisville Bats
- The player
- LONG SHOT
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Watch
16 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
14 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Nobody has logged a completed sale for this card, so we can't say what it's worth.
Our take
Long-shot prospect, untested market.
Junior Fernández scores 16 out of 100 (#6747 of the 7,942 we score), and the case rests on one thing: what the hobby pays up for — SP sells at a discount at equal production; 29.0 is old for a prospect card.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: age for the level — -3.0y vs his level at Triple-A puts him younger than only 19% of the cohort. The clock is a real cost on a prospect card.
The signal
Old for the level
-3.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than only 19% of the players there.
K-BB% slipping
15.5% last season to 9.6% this one.
Strikeouts slipping
29.5% last season to 20.6% this one.
What the hobby pays up for
SP sells at a discount at equal production; 29.0 is old for a prospect card.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Age for the level
-3.0y vs his level at Triple-A puts him younger than only 19% of the cohort. The clock is a real cost on a prospect card.
Pitcher
Injury risk is materially higher and the resale market is smaller, which is why the strategy caps what share of a book pitchers can take.
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2016 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto BCP-176 — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 7 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
No price on this card yet
sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 7 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2016 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto BCP-176
Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto
The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 7 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, /150 at $10.13 costs 1.85× base, and print run alone suggests 1.50×, with no measured sales to check it against — best balance available. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.
What would make this a buy
- On his best-priced card: past the window.
- A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.
What is for sale right now
14 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 14 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 8 are under "The whole live market".
2016 Bowman Chrome Junior Fernandez 1st Bowman Auto BGS 9.5Q+
base · BGS 9 · takes offers · listed 1077d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
$30.49
no sold price
WATCH
JUNIOR FERNANDEZ ROOKIE BOWMAN 1ST AUTO 2016 BOWMAN CHROME BASEBALL /499
/499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 169d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 95h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$4.85
modeled ~$7.50
WATCH
JUNIOR FERNANDEZ 2016 Bowman Chrome Purple Refractor AUTO RC #/250 BGS 9.5
/250 · BGS 9.5 · takes offers · listed 2004d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$32.98
no sold price
WATCH
PSA 10 - 2016 BOWMAN CHROME - AUTOGRAPH - JUNIOR FERNANDEZ (RC) AUTO (SP) + RC's
base · PSA 10 · listed 2319d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$33.50
modeled ~$170.05
WATCH
Junior Fernandez 2016 1st Bowman Chrome Auto Rc Autograph Prospect BCAP-JF
base · raw · condition not stated · listed 275d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 95h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$5.48
modeled ~$3.00
WATCH
2016 1st Bowman Chrome Junior Fernandez Cardinals Auto
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 1367d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 96h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$5.49
modeled ~$3.00
WATCH
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder5 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $5.48, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $5.48 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $4.85, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $4.85 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -12%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $10.06, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $10.06 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +107%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $11.51, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $11.51 live
- Scarcity
- 250 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +14%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Blue Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $10.13, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $10.13 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -12%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
3 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 49 on the 20–80 scale, against 907 pitchers at Triple-A
What he is good at
skills overall 49 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 907 pitchers at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Stuff
Does he miss bats?
47
average · better than 38% at his level
20.6% K
strikeout rate per batter faced — never per nine innings, which flatters a pitcher who allows more baserunners
Command
Bats missed AND strikes thrown?
48
average · better than 42% at his level
9.6% K-BB
strikeouts minus walks — the gap that survives a promotion
Control
Does he give away bases?
52
average · better than 56% at his level
11.0% BB
walk rate, inverted — lower is better from the mound
Run prevention
Do the runs stay off the board?
52
average · better than 57% at his level · the result, not a skill
1.45 WHIP
walks and hits per inning, inverted — the result, and the defence behind him is in it too
Workload
Is he carrying a starter's innings?
52
average · better than 58% at his level · context, not a skill
31.0 IP
innings carried — a starter's bulk is worth what a reliever's is not
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
41
well below · better than 19% at his level · context, not a skill
-3.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 3 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 45th percentile of the cohort, run prevention at the 57th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.
Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.
How this is read: his skills average 45 and his run prevention sits at 57, a gap of -12. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 907 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 26th percentile.
Will he get there?
Real chance 5.3 / 10
- already at Triple-A
- old for Triple-A
- pitcher — more of them break down before they arrive
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 76% of what it wants to know — missing production, form.
How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 907 other pitchers at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
BF
136
IP
31.0
ERA
4.65
WHIP
1.45
K-BB%
9.6
better than 42%
K%
20.6
BB%
11.0
HR9
0.87
GS
0
Is this player getting better?
Down from 15.5% to 9.6% K-BB this season.
Still at Triple-A, the same level as last season.
K-BB%
15.5%▼9.6%
Strikeouts
29.5%▼20.6%
Walks
14.0%▼11.0%
WHIP
1.47→1.45
ERA
4.40→4.65
Last season, 193 batters faced. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market14 listed · 14 eBay-verified · 8 not shown above
- Listings
- 14
- Lowest seen
- $4.85
- Median ask
- $11.51
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $4.85
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $4.85
14 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 1 hour ago.
The other 8 cards
- $6.742016 1ST BOWMAN CHROME JUNIOR FERNANDEZ CARDINALS ON-CARD AUTO RC RookieWATCH
- $12.592016 Bowman Chrome Prospect Autographs JUNIOR FERNANDEZ #BCAP-JF 1st AutoWATCH
- $12.912016 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Rookie #BCP176 Junior Fernandez Cardinals RCWATCH
- $13.492016 BOWMAN CHROME JUNIOR FERNANDEZ AUTO #BCAP-JF 1ST PROSPECTWATCH
- —2016 Bowman Chrome Junior Fernandez 1st Prospect Auto #BCAP-JF CardinalsWATCH
- $10.132016 Bowman Chrome Prospects Blue Refractor 109/150 Junior Fernandez Auto 8s6WATCH
- $11.512016 Bowman Chrome Prospects Purple Refractor 164/250 Junior Fernandez Auto 8s6WATCH
- $10.062016 Bowman Chrome Prospects Refractor /499 Junior Fernandez #BCAP-JF Auto s3gWATCH
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run