Luke Bard
C · ACL Dodgers · Rookie · 22.0y · #7570 of 7,949 we rate
- The player
- LONG SHOT
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Watch
6 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
1 card of his is listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Nobody has logged a completed sale for this card, so we can't say what it's worth.
Our take
Long-shot prospect, untested market.
Luke Bard scores 6 out of 100 (#7570 of the 7,949 we score), and the case rests on one thing: premium position — C — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: no professional sample — we hold no season line for him, so every player-side reading on this page is missing its main input.
The signal
Old for the level
-4.0y vs his level at Rookie — younger than only 6% of the players there.
Premium position
C — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
What the hobby pays up for
C sells at a discount at equal production.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
No professional sample
We hold no season line for him, so every player-side reading on this page is missing its main input.
Age for the level
-4.0y vs his level at Rookie puts him younger than only 6% of the cohort. The clock is a real cost on a prospect card.
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
Baseball vs card market
INSUFFICIENT MARKET EVIDENCE- The baseball
- trajectory unmeasured
- The cards
- no measurable move
Why this divergence exists
We have not measured his baseball trajectory, so there is nothing to set the card market against.
Compare him with every player whose baseball has outrun his cards.
What the hobby pays for him
A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.
Benchmark not yet established — no 1st Bowman vehicle observed for this player. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
Best Bowman card to own
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
Secondary and avoid: 1 live listing is a certified auto that is not (or not provably) his 1st Bowman Chrome — a later or lesser vehicle, ranked below the canonical card whatever its serial number.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, Base at $3.68 — the numbered ones cost more than they are worth, on print run alone. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.
Live listings that fit the thesis
Ranked by card fit, identity and listing quality — never by what pays us, and never cheapest-first.
- 1Luke Bard 2012 Bowman Chrome Draft Prospects #BDPP15 Twins Signed auto autographSecondary auto · identity uncertain · no valuation$3.68
See listing
What would make this a buy
- On his best-priced card: not a core card.
What is for sale right now
1 card of his is listed · 0 of the 1 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 1 worth looking at, best first.
Luke Bard 2012 Bowman Chrome Draft Prospects #BDPP15 Twins Signed auto autograph
base · raw · condition not stated · listed 279d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$3.68
modeled ~$2.99
WATCH
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
Catalyst timelineno logged or derived event yet
No event on his timeline yet — no logged promotion, call-up or injury, and no level change between the two seasons we hold. Derived events appear as stat lines land; logged ones appear with their source.
Every event on the catalyst tracker carries the same grade.
His canonical cardsno card identity established yet
A card reaches verified only from a checklist source. A seller's title can make it likely when independent sellers agree, and never more. Cards with a page of their own link to it.
No card identity has been established for him yet. A card enters this list when independent sellers describe the same card the same way or a confirmed sale names it — a single seller's title never does.
The parallel ladder1 version of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $3.68, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $3.68 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
What he is good atno percentiles against his level yet
What he is good at
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 1078 hitters at Rookie — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
—
not measured for him yet
—
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
—
not measured for him yet
—
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
—
not measured for him yet
—
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
—
not measured for him yet
—
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
—
not measured for him yet
—
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
34
bottom of the scale · better than 6% at his level · context, not a skill
-4.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
Will he get there?
Long shot 3.2 / 10
- old for Rookie
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 58% of what it wants to know — missing readiness, production, form.
How he is playingno season line on file
We hold no season stat line for him. That happens when he has not played enough this year, or when the roster refresh has not reached his level.
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market1 listed · 0 eBay-verified
- Listings
- 1
- Lowest live
- $3.68
- Median ask
- $3.68
- Cheapest 1st auto
- —
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- —
0 eBay-verified
What this page is missing3 things we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a season stat line — he may not have played enough yet.
- We do not have percentiles against his level — the roster refresh computes these.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same