Luke Murphy
SP · Rocket City Trash Pandas · Double-A · 26.0y · #6953 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- LONG SHOT
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Watch
8 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
30 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Nobody has logged a completed sale for this card, so we can't say what it's worth.
Our take
Long-shot prospect, untested market.
Luke Murphy scores 8 out of 100 (#6953 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: what the hobby pays up for — SP sells at a discount at equal production; 26.0 is old for a prospect card.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: no professional sample — we hold no season line for him, so every player-side reading on this page is missing its main input.
The signal
Old for the level
-2.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than only 24% of the players there.
The case is fading
Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.
What the hobby pays up for
SP sells at a discount at equal production; 26.0 is old for a prospect card.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
No professional sample
We hold no season line for him, so every player-side reading on this page is missing its main input.
Age for the level
-2.0y vs his level at Double-A puts him younger than only 24% of the cohort. The clock is a real cost on a prospect card.
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CDA-LMU — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 8 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
No price on this card yet
sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 8 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CDA-LMU
Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto
The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 8 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, Base at $4.98 — the numbered ones cost more than they are worth, on print run alone. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.
What would make this a buy
- On his best-priced card: past the window.
- A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.
What is for sale right now
30 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 30 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 24 are under "The whole live market".
Luke Murphy 1st Auto | 2021 Bowman Chrome Shimmer | #21/71
/71 · raw · condition not stated · auction · listed 9d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 81h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$20.17
no sold price
WATCH
2021 Bowman Chrome Luke Murphy On Card Auto SP 1ST Bowman Rookie Angels Mint
base · raw · takes offers · listed 1486d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 81h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
modeled ~$4.99
WATCH
2021 Bowman Chrome Draft 1st Prospect Auto LA Angels CDA-LMU - LUKE MURPHY
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 1154d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 82h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$4.98
modeled ~$4.99
WATCH
2021 Bowman Draft Chrome Luke Murphy Bowman 1st Auto CDA-LMU Angels
base · raw · condition not stated · listed 817d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 82h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$6.00
modeled ~$4.99
WATCH
2021 BOWMAN CHROME DRAFT 1ST BOWMAN LUKE MURPHY CHROME AUTO C534
base · raw · condition not stated · listed 1681d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 81h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$8.99
modeled ~$4.99
WATCH
2021 1st Bowman Chrome Luke Murphy Auto Los Angeles Angels
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 639d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 81h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$9.00
modeled ~$4.99
WATCH
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder6 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $4.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $4.98 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $22.48, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $22.48 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +351%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Aqua Lava Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $21.91, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $21.91 live
- Scarcity
- 199 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -3%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $28.23, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $28.23 live
- Scarcity
- 250 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +29%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Blue Wave Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $39.73, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $39.73 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +41%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Shimmer /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $20.17, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $20.17 live
- Scarcity
- 71 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -49%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
What he is good atno percentiles against his level yet
What he is good at
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 496 hitters at Double-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
—
not measured for him yet
—
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
—
not measured for him yet
—
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
—
not measured for him yet
—
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
—
not measured for him yet
—
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
—
not measured for him yet
—
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
43
below average · better than 24% at his level · context, not a skill
-2.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
Will he get there?
Long shot 4.3 / 10
- already at Double-A
- old for Double-A
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.
How he is playingno season line on file
We hold no season stat line for him. That happens when he has not played enough this year, or when the roster refresh has not reached his level.
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market30 listed · 30 eBay-verified · 24 not shown above
- Listings
- 30
- Lowest seen
- $4.98
- Median ask
- $10.98
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $4.98
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $20.17
30 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 8 hours ago.
The other 24 cards
- $9.982021 Bowman Draft Chrome LUKE MURPHY 1st Rookie AUTO #CDA-LMU Angels RC QUANTITYWATCH
- $10.002021 Bowman Chrome 1st Luke Murphy Auto Los Angeles AngelsWATCH
- $10.23LUKE MURPHY 2021 Bowman Chrome Auto 1stWATCH
- $10.492021 BOWMAN CHROME DRAFT 1ST BOWMAN LUKE MURPHY CHROME AUTO C527WATCH
- $11.492021 Bowman Chrome Luke Murphy Angels 1st Prospect AutoWATCH
- $13.622021 Bowman Draft Luke Murphy 1st Bowman Chrome Auto CDA-LMUWATCH
- $13.99LUKE MURPHY 2021 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST RC AUTO #CDA-LMUWATCH
- $18.00LUKE MURPHY 2021 BOWMAN DRAFT CHROME ROOKIE AUTO 1st BOWMAN ANGELS CDA-LMUWATCH
- —Topps 2021 Bowman Draft Chrome Luke Murphy 1st Bowman Prospect Auto #CDA-LMUWATCH
- —2021 Bowman Chrome Draft Auto LUKE MURPHY 1st Bowman Los Angeles ANGELS #CDA-LMUWATCH
- —2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Luke Murphy Auto #CDA-LMU AngelsWATCH
- —Topps 2021 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Auto CDA-LMU Luke Murphy 1st AngelsWATCH
- $39.732021 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Blue Wave Refractor 100/150 Luke Murphy Auto 0g6dWATCH
- $6.992021 Bowman Chrome Draft Luke Murphy 1st Prospect Auto Autograph #CDA-LMUWATCH
- $8.642021 Luke Murphy Bowman Chrome 1st ON CARD AUTO 💥102/499💥 MLB Baseball CDA-LMUWATCH
- $21.912021 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Aqua Lava Refractor /199 Luke Murphy Auto 1u5yWATCH
- $28.232021 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Purple Refractor 92/250 Luke Murphy Auto 0g6dWATCH
- $31.122021 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Purple Refractor 18/250 Luke Murphy Auto ni4WATCH
- $22.482021 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Refractor 172/499 Luke Murphy #CDA-LMU Auto 0g6dWATCH
- $7.202021 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Luke Murphy #CDA-LMU Auto 14tzWATCH
- $10.422021 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Luke Murphy #CDA-LMU Auto 0ou2WATCH
- $10.982021 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Luke Murphy #CDA-LMU Auto 0g6dWATCH
- $12.722021 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Luke Murphy #CDA-LMU Auto 12liWATCH
- $15.582021 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Luke Murphy #CDA-LMU Auto gd1WATCH
What this page is missing3 things we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a season stat line — he may not have played enough yet.
- We do not have percentiles against his level — the roster refresh computes these.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run