Juan Olmos
SP · FCL Braves · FCL Braves · Rookie · 21.0y · #7442 of 7,942 we rate
- The player
- LONG SHOT
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Wait
9 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
46 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Closest of his is 2023 Bowman Draft Chrome JUAN OLMOS 1ST…. Waiting on sales.
Our take
Long-shot prospect, untested market.
Juan Olmos scores 9 out of 100 (#7442 of the 7,942 we score), and the case rests on one thing: what the hobby pays up for — SP sells at a discount at equal production.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: pitcher — injury risk is materially higher and the resale market is smaller, which is why the strategy caps what share of a book pitchers can take.
The signal
Control: below average
20.6% BB — walk rate, inverted — lower is better from the mound
What the hobby pays up for
SP sells at a discount at equal production.
K-BB% improving
-8.6% last season to -1.6% this one.
Strikeouts improving
14.6% last season to 19.0% this one.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Pitcher
Injury risk is materially higher and the resale market is smaller, which is why the strategy caps what share of a book pitchers can take.
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 34 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
No price on this card yet
sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 36 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto
Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto
The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 34 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, Base at $4.36 — the numbered ones cost more than they are worth, on print run alone. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.
What would make this a buy
- Waiting on sales
- Player not there yet
What is for sale right now
46 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 46 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 40 are under "The whole live market".
2023 Bowman Draft Chrome JUAN OLMOS 1ST SPECKLE AUTO /299 Royals
/299 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 897d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 106h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
modeled ~$11.99
WATCH
2023 Bowman Chrome Prospect Juan Olmos 1st Bowman Auto Refractor 404/499 K1
/499 · raw · condition not stated · listed 222d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 106h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$7.49
modeled ~$8.00
WATCH
Juan Olmos 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Refractor Autograph Auto Card /499 #CPA-JOS
/499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 883d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 106h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$8.00
modeled ~$7.50
WATCH
Juan Olmos 2023 Bowman Chrome CPA-JOS 1st Refractor Auto RC /499 Royals
/499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 191d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 106h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
modeled ~$8.00
WATCH
Juan Olmos 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st AUTO Royals Top Prospect Rookie RC ⭐️ MINT
base · raw · takes offers · listed 1074d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 107h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$5.48
modeled ~$4.25
WATCH
2023 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST SPECKLE REFRACTOR JUAN OLMOS AUTO /299 Royals 🔥🔥
/299 · raw · condition not stated · listed 1048d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 106h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$13.98
modeled ~$5.00
WATCH
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder4 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $4.36, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $4.36 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $7.49, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $7.49 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +72%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Speckle Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $13.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $13.98 live
- Scarcity
- 299 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +87%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Purple /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $18.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $18.98 live
- Scarcity
- 250 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +36%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
2 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 47 on the 20–80 scale, against 1285 pitchers at Rookie
What he is good at
skills overall 47 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 1285 pitchers at Rookie — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Stuff
Does he miss bats?
50
average · better than 49% at his level
19.0% K
strikeout rate per batter faced — never per nine innings, which flatters a pitcher who allows more baserunners
Command
Bats missed AND strikes thrown?
46
below average · better than 33% at his level
-1.6% K-BB
strikeouts minus walks — the gap that survives a promotion
Control
Does he give away bases?
45
below average · better than 32% at his level
20.6% BB
walk rate, inverted — lower is better from the mound
Run prevention
Do the runs stay off the board?
44
below average · better than 29% at his level · the result, not a skill
2.21 WHIP
walks and hits per inning, inverted — the result, and the defence behind him is in it too
Workload
Is he carrying a starter's innings?
53
above average · better than 62% at his level · context, not a skill
24.0 IP
innings carried — a starter's bulk is worth what a reliever's is not
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
45
below average · better than 31% at his level · context, not a skill
-2.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 3 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 38th percentile of the cohort, run prevention at the 29th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.
Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.
How this is read: his skills average 38 and his run prevention sits at 29, a gap of +9. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 1,280 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 70th percentile.
Will he get there?
Unlikely 2.7 / 10
- old for Rookie
- pitcher — more of them break down before they arrive
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 58% of what it wants to know — missing readiness, production, form.
How he is playingThe Rookie line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 1285 other pitchers at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
BF
126
IP
24.0
ERA
9.00
WHIP
2.21
K-BB%
-1.6
better than 33%
K%
19.0
BB%
20.6
HR9
0.38
GS
0
Is this player getting better?
Missing more bats and walking fewer batters than last season — -8.6% up to -1.6% K-BB — but last season was a small sample, so go easy on it.
Still at Rookie, the same level as last season.
K-BB%
-8.6%▲-1.6%
Strikeouts
14.6%▲19.0%
Walks
23.2%▼20.6%
WHIP
2.31▼2.21
ERA
7.88▲9.00
Last season, 82 batters faced — a small enough sample that these gaps might just be luck. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market46 listed · 0 eBay-verified · 40 not shown above
- Listings
- 46
- Lowest seen
- $4.36
- Median ask
- $7.49
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $4.36
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $7.49
0 eBay-verified
The other 40 cards
- $34.782023 Bowman Chrome Juan Olmos Prospect Autograph PSA 10 Royals Auto RCWATCH
- —2023 Bowman Chrome Juan Olmos Speckle Refractor Auto PSA 10WATCH
- $4.482023 Bowman Chrome Baseball - 1st Auto #CPA-JOS Kansas City Royals - JUAN OLMOSWATCH
- $4.642023 Bowman Chrome Juan Olmos Auto Kansas City Royals #CPA-JOS 1st ProspectWATCH
- $4.992023 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST PROSPECT AUTO JUAN OLMOS ROYALSWATCH
- $5.482023 Bowman Chrome Juan Olmos 1st AutoWATCH
- $5.492023 Bowman Chrome JUAN OLMOS 1st RC On Card AUTO RoyalsWATCH
- $5.732023 Bowman Chrome Baseball - 1st Auto #CPA-BM Kansas City Royals - JUAN OLMOSWATCH
- $6.21Juan Olmos 2023 Bowman Baseball Chrome 1st Auto #CPA-JOS RoyalsWATCH
- $6.952023 Bowman Chrome JUAN OLMOS 1st Chrome Auto #CPA-JOS Kansas City RoyalsWATCH
- $6.98Juan Olmos 1st Bowman Chrome Auto #BCP-136WATCH
- $7.282023 Bowman Chrome Juan Olmos 1st Prospect Auto Autograph #CPA-JOS RoyalsWATCH
- $7.492023 Topps Chrome Prospects Juan Olmos 1st Bowman Auto K1 AWATCH
- $7.492023 Topps Chrome Prospects Juan Olmos 1st Bowman Auto K1 BWATCH
- $7.50Juan Olmos 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Autograph Auto Card #CPA-JOSWATCH
- $8.992023 Bowman Chrome Juan Olmos Auto 1st RoyalsWATCH
- $9.002023 Bowman Chrome 1st Juan Olmos Auto Kansas City Royals #CPA-JOSWATCH
- $10.002023 Bowman Chrome Juan Olmos 1st Prospect Auto Autograph #CPA-JOS RoyalsWATCH
- $10.13Juan Olmos 2023 AUTO 1st Bowman Chrome #CPA-JOS Prospect Kansas City Ro yalsWATCH
- $10.87Juan Olmos 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Rookie Auto Autograph Kansas City RoyalsWATCH
- $12.00Juan Olmos 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Year Prospect Autograph Auto RoyalsWATCH
- —2023 Bowman Chrome Juan Olmos 1st Bowman Auto #CPA-JOSWATCH
- —2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Juan Olmos #CPA-JOS (AU, RC)WATCH
- —Topps 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Juan Olmos Auto Royals Prospect #CPA-JOSWATCH
- —Juan Olmos 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto #CPA-JOS RoyalsWATCH
- —2023 Bowman Chrome Juan Olmos Prospect Auto 1st #CPA-JOSWATCH
- —2023 Bowman Chrome Juan Olmos 1st Bowman Auto #CPA-JOS Royals WATCH
- —2023 Bowman Chrome JUAN OLMOS 1st Rookie Prospect Auto On-Card CPA-JOS KC RoyalsWATCH
- —Juan Olmos 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Rookie Auto Autograph Kansas CityWATCH
- —2023 Bowman Chrome Juan Olmos 1st Bowman Auto #CPA-JOS Royals WATCH
- —2023 Bowman Chrome JUAN OLMOS 1st Chrome Auto Kansas City Royals Future ⭐️! 🔥🔥WATCH
- —JUAN OLMOS 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman AUTO #CPA-JOS Kansas City RoyalsWATCH
- —Juan Olmos 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto #CPA-JOS RoyalsWATCH
- —2023 Bowman Chrome Juan Olmos Auto 1st Bowman Kansas City RoyalsWATCH
- —2023 Bowman Chrome JUAN OLMOS Auto - 1st ProspectWATCH
- $4.362023 Bowman Chrome Juan Olmos 1st Bowman Auto Kansas City RoyalsWATCH
- $5.992023 Bowman Chrome Juan Olmos 1st Prospect Auto CPA-JOS Royals RCWATCH
- —2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Juan Olmos Auto Kansas City Royals #CPA-JOSWATCH
- —2023 Bowman Chrome Draft Juan Olmos 1st Auto Autograph CDA-JOS RoyalsWATCH
- $18.98Juan Olmos 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Purple 161/250 Auto Autograph Prospect CPA-JOSPASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run