Kyle Nicolas
SP · Rochester Red Wings · Rochester Red Wings · Triple-A · 27.0y · #6845 of 7,942 we rate
Next: Today 10:35 PM at Syracuse Mets
- The player
- LONG SHOT
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Watch
15 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
18 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Nobody has logged a completed sale for this card, so we can't say what it's worth.
Our take
Long-shot prospect, untested market.
Kyle Nicolas scores 15 out of 100 (#6845 of the 7,942 we score), and the case rests on one thing: what the hobby pays up for — SP sells at a discount at equal production; 27.0 is old for a prospect card.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: command risk — command grades 40 on the 20–80 scale (1.4% K-BB). strikeouts minus walks — the gap that survives a promotion
The signal
Control: well below
22.2% BB — walk rate, inverted — lower is better from the mound
K-BB% slipping
18.7% last season to 1.4% this one.
Strikeouts slipping
31.1% last season to 23.6% this one.
What the hobby pays up for
SP sells at a discount at equal production; 27.0 is old for a prospect card.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Command risk
Command grades 40 on the 20–80 scale (1.4% K-BB). strikeouts minus walks — the gap that survives a promotion
Pitcher
Injury risk is materially higher and the resale market is smaller, which is why the strategy caps what share of a book pitchers can take.
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2020 Bowman Draft 1st Auto — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 3 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
No price on this card yet
sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 3 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2020 Bowman Draft 1st Auto
Raw base 1st Bowman Draft Chrome Auto
The draft-class equivalent of the canonical auto — same card kind, other product line. Identified from 3 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, /499 at $7.43 costs 1.29× base, and print run alone suggests 1.15×, with no measured sales to check it against — best balance available. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.
What would make this a buy
- On his best-priced card: past the window.
- A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.
What is for sale right now
18 cards of his are listed, 1 held back on condition or a broken price · 0 of the 17 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 11 are under "The whole live market".
KYLE NICOLAS 2020 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST PURPLE REFRACTOR RC AUTO 063/250 #CDA-KNI
/250 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 427d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 107h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$13.99
modeled ~$7.50
WATCH
Kyle Nicolas 2020 Bowman Chrome Draft 1st #BD64 Miami Marlins Auto Signed Card
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 991d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 107h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$5.75
modeled ~$3.25
WATCH
2020 Bowman Draft Chrome Kyle Nicolas 1st Auto #CDA-KNI Pittsburgh Pirates
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 761d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 107h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$5.99
modeled ~$3.25
WATCH
Kyle Nicolas 2020 1ST BOWMAN CHROME ROOKIE RC AUTO #CDA-KNI MIAMI MARLINS!
base · raw · condition not stated · listed 1243d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 107h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$11.25
modeled ~$3.25
WATCH
2020 Bowman Draft Chrome KYLE NICOLAS 1st Rookie AUTO #CDA-KNI Pirates RC SP
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 1066d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 107h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$16.98
modeled ~$3.25
WATCH
2020 Bowman Draft Chrome Picks Blue Wave Refractor 132/150 Kyle Nicolas Auto gb4
/150 · raw · condition not stated · listed 7d
Not a core card · 4 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$11.57
modeled ~$12.50
WATCH
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder4 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $5.75, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $5.75 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $7.43, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $7.43 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +29%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $13.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $13.99 live
- Scarcity
- 250 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +88%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Blue Wave Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $11.57, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $11.57 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -17%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
What he is good atSkills 43 on the 20–80 scale, against 907 pitchers at Triple-A
What he is good at
skills overall 43 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 907 pitchers at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Stuff
Does he miss bats?
52
average · better than 56% at his level
23.6% K
strikeout rate per batter faced — never per nine innings, which flatters a pitcher who allows more baserunners
Command
Bats missed AND strikes thrown?
40
well below · better than 17% at his level
1.4% K-BB
strikeouts minus walks — the gap that survives a promotion
Control
Does he give away bases?
36
well below · better than 8% at his level
22.2% BB
walk rate, inverted — lower is better from the mound
Run prevention
Do the runs stay off the board?
37
well below · better than 10% at his level · the result, not a skill
2.31 WHIP
walks and hits per inning, inverted — the result, and the defence behind him is in it too
Workload
Is he carrying a starter's innings?
54
above average · better than 67% at his level · context, not a skill
39.0 IP
innings carried — a starter's bulk is worth what a reliever's is not
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
50
average · better than 49% at his level · context, not a skill
-1.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 3 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 27th percentile of the cohort, run prevention at the 10th — his tools run further ahead of his results than 83% of the players he is measured against.
The market prices the stat line, and his is behind what he is doing. That is where a card is cheap for a reason that can change.
How this is read: his skills average 27 and his run prevention sits at 10, a gap of +17. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 907 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 83th percentile.
Will he get there?
Real chance 5.1 / 10
- already at Triple-A
- old for Triple-A
- pitcher — more of them break down before they arrive
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 76% of what it wants to know — missing production, form.
How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 907 other pitchers at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
BF
203
IP
39.0
ERA
5.08
WHIP
2.31
K-BB%
1.4
better than 17%
K%
23.6
BB%
22.2
HR9
0.69
GS
0
Is this player getting better?
Down from 18.7% to 1.4% K-BB this season.
Still at Triple-A, the same level as last season.
K-BB%
18.7%▼1.4%
Strikeouts
31.1%▼23.6%
Walks
12.4%▲22.2%
WHIP
1.54▲2.31
ERA
3.79▲5.08
Last season, 161 batters faced. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market18 listed · 0 eBay-verified · 11 not shown above
- Listings
- 18
- Lowest seen
- $5.75
- Median ask
- $9.27
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $5.75
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $13.99
0 eBay-verified
The other 11 cards
- —2020 Topps Bowman Chrome Draft Kyle Nicolas Purple Refractor Auto /250WATCH
- $7.432020 Bowman Draft Chrome Picks Refractor /499 Kyle Nicolas #CDA-KNI Auto 04mfWATCH
- $8.122020 Bowman Draft Chrome Picks Refractor 337/499 Kyle Nicolas #CDA-KNI Auto gb4WATCH
- $16.162020 Bowman Draft Chrome Picks Refractor 224/499 Kyle Nicolas #CDA-KNI Auto 02d2WATCH
- $7.432020 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Picks Kyle Nicolas #CDA-KNI Auto 04mfWATCH
- $7.812020 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Picks Kyle Nicolas #CDA-KNI Auto 4l3WATCH
- $7.812020 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Picks Kyle Nicolas #CDA-KNI Auto 4l3WATCH
- $8.122020 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Picks Kyle Nicolas #CDA-KNI Auto 01nwWATCH
- $10.422020 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Picks Kyle Nicolas #CDA-KNI Auto 16s2WATCH
- $10.422020 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Picks Kyle Nicolas #CDA-KNI Auto 14mxWATCH
- $17.322020 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Picks Kyle Nicolas #CDA-KNI Auto 0i1cWATCH
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run