Griff McGarry
SP · Oklahoma City Comets · Oklahoma City Comets · Triple-A · 27.0y · #5730 of 7,942 we rate
Next: Tue 11:45 PM at Round Rock Express
- The player
- LONG SHOT
- The market
- Expensive
- What to do
- Watch
24 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
His best base card asks $3.50, over the $3 that card has sold in.
The ask is over the odds — $3.50 against $3.00 these actually sell for — so the ask is not the price to think about. The offer is.
Our take
Long-shot prospect, expensive market.
Griff McGarry scores 24 out of 100 (#5730 of the 7,942 we score), and the case rests on one thing: stuff: above average — 26.9% K — strikeout rate per batter faced — never per nine innings, which flatters a pitcher who allows more baserunners Better than 72% at his level.
His core Bowman card has been selling at $2–4 off 1 confirmed sale.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: command risk — command grades 37 on the 20–80 scale (-2.8% K-BB). strikeouts minus walks — the gap that survives a promotion
The signal
Control: bottom of the scale
29.7% BB — walk rate, inverted — lower is better from the mound
K-BB% slipping
19.1% last season to -2.8% this one.
Strikeouts slipping
33.9% last season to 26.9% this one.
Stuff: above average
26.9% K — strikeout rate per batter faced — never per nine innings, which flatters a pitcher who allows more baserunners Better than 72% at his level.
Moved up and held it
Double-A to Triple-A.
What the hobby pays up for
SP sells at a discount at equal production; 27.0 is old for a prospect card.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Command risk
Command grades 37 on the 20–80 scale (-2.8% K-BB). strikeouts minus walks — the gap that survives a promotion
Pitcher
Injury risk is materially higher and the resale market is smaller, which is why the strategy caps what share of a book pitchers can take.
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how raw base 1st bowman chrome auto sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
Asks above the sold band
Every live card of his we can price is asking more than these have actually sold for, so today's entry is at a premium.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-GM — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 10 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
$2.25–3.75midpoint $3.00
Evidence limited· 1 salemost recent 2026-08-22 · 10 listed now
- 7 days
- not enough sales
- 30 days
- not enough sales
- 90 days
- not enough sales
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-GM
Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto
The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 10 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
No good entry today
The closest to fair is 2023 Bowman Chrome Griff McGarry 1st Auto CPA-GM Philadelphia Phillies Autograph at $16, 433% over the $3 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.
That card at or under $3 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.
What would make this a buy
- On his best-priced card: past the window.
- A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.
What is for sale right now
19 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 19 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 13 are under "The whole live market".
GRIFF MCGARRY2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Autograph | #CPA-GM SGC 9.5 Auto 10
base · SGC 9.5 · takes offers · listed 29d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — the year
—
no sold price
WATCH
2023 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor /499 Griff McGarry PSA 10 GEM MT Auto w5p
/499 · PSA 10 · listed 6d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$99.53
no sold price
WATCH
Griff McGarry 2023 1st Bowman Chrome AUTO PURPLE REFRACTOR 055/250 Raw RC z72
/250 · raw · condition not stated · listed 2d
Past the window · 3 other things in the way
$8.42
modeled $1.76–6.82
PASS
Griff McGarry 2023 1st Bowman Chrome AUTO PURPLE REFRACTOR 055/250 Raw RC z72
/250 · raw · condition not stated · listed 10d
Past the window · 3 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 95h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$9.41
modeled $1.76–6.82
PASS
Griff McGarry 2023 1st Bowman Chrome AUTO PURPLE REFRACTOR 169/250 Raw RC z15
/250 · raw · condition not stated · listed 7d
Past the window · 3 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 95h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$9.41
modeled $1.76–6.82
PASS
2023 Bowman Chrome Griff McGarry Auto #CPA-GM 1st Bowman RC
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 9d
Past the window · 3 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 95h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$3.50
sold $3
PASS
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder3 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $3.50, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $3.50 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $6.25, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $6.25 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +79%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $8.42, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $8.42 live
- Scarcity
- 250 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +35%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
2 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 41 on the 20–80 scale, against 907 pitchers at Triple-A
What he is good at
skills overall 41 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 907 pitchers at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Stuff
Does he miss bats?
56
above average · better than 72% at his level
26.9% K
strikeout rate per batter faced — never per nine innings, which flatters a pitcher who allows more baserunners
Command
Bats missed AND strikes thrown?
37
well below · better than 9% at his level
-2.8% K-BB
strikeouts minus walks — the gap that survives a promotion
Control
Does he give away bases?
29
bottom of the scale · better than 2% at his level
29.7% BB
walk rate, inverted — lower is better from the mound
Run prevention
Do the runs stay off the board?
37
well below · better than 10% at his level · the result, not a skill
2.30 WHIP
walks and hits per inning, inverted — the result, and the defence behind him is in it too
Workload
Is he carrying a starter's innings?
51
average · better than 52% at his level · context, not a skill
27.1 IP
innings carried — a starter's bulk is worth what a reliever's is not
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
50
average · better than 49% at his level · context, not a skill
-1.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 3 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 28th percentile of the cohort, run prevention at the 10th — his tools run further ahead of his results than 84% of the players he is measured against.
The market prices the stat line, and his is behind what he is doing. That is where a card is cheap for a reason that can change.
How this is read: his skills average 28 and his run prevention sits at 10, a gap of +18. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 907 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 84th percentile.
Will he get there?
Real chance 5.2 / 10
- already at Triple-A
- old for Triple-A
- pitcher — more of them break down before they arrive
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.
How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 907 other pitchers at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
BF
145
IP
27.1
ERA
7.57
WHIP
2.30
K-BB%
-2.8
better than 9%
K%
26.9
BB%
29.7
HR9
0.66
GS
0
Is this player getting better?
Down from 19.1% to -2.8% K-BB, but that came with a move up to Triple-A — a step back at a harder level is normal.
Moved up from Double-A to Triple-A — the pitching is harder this year.
K-BB%
19.1%▼-2.8%
Strikeouts
33.9%▼26.9%
Walks
14.8%▲29.7%
WHIP
1.24▲2.30
ERA
3.25▲7.57
Last season, 304 batters faced. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market19 listed · 19 eBay-verified · 13 not shown above
- Listings
- 19
- Lowest seen
- $3.50
- Median ask
- $9.41
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $3.50
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $8.42
19 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 1 hour ago.
The other 13 cards
- $18.26Griff McGarry 2023 1st Bowman Chrome AUTO REFRACTOR 129/499 Phillies Prospect N6PASS
- $7.31Griff McGarry 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Phillies #CPA-GM Dodgers ProspectPASS
- $7.392023 Bowman Chrome GRIFF McGARRY 1st Rookie AUTO CPA-GM Philadelphia Phillies RCPASS
- $16.002023 Bowman Chrome Griff McGarry 1st Auto CPA-GM Philadelphia Phillies AutographPASS
- —2023 Bowman Chrome Griff McGarry 1st Prospect Auto #cpa-gmPASS
- —Griff McGarry Rookie Auto 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman #CPA-GM NationalsPASS
- —Griff McGarry 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Phillies #CPA-GM 🔥🔥PASS
- —2023 Bowman Chrome Griff Mcgarry 1st Bowman Auto SP #CPA-GMPASS
- $13.692023 Bowman Chrome 1st Griff McGarry Auto Phillies Autograph BaseballPASS
- —2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Griff McGarry Auto Phillies Autograph BaseballPASS
- $46.072023 Bowman Chrome Prospect Purple Refractor /250 Griff McGarry #CPA-GM Auto xb2PASS
- $57.572023 Bowman Chrome Prospect Purple Refractor 144/250 Griff McGarry Auto 0rd2PASS
- $6.252023 Bowman Chrome Griff McGarry #CPA-GM Refractor /499 Auto Autograph PhilliesPASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- What a modeled fair value means — at least one value on this page was modeled rather than taken from a sale
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run