Bowman Sniper

Shane Drohan

SP · Nashville Sounds · Nashville Sounds · Triple-A · 27.0y · #4349 of 7,942 we rate

Next: Tue 11:35 PM vs Louisville Bats

The player
LONG SHOT

35 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

12 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Watch

We can't see what this costs all in, so there's nothing to judge yet.

Our take

Long-shot prospect, untested market.

Shane Drohan scores 35 out of 100 (#4349 of the 7,942 we score), and the case rests on one thing: stuff: above average — 27.0% K — strikeout rate per batter faced — never per nine innings, which flatters a pitcher who allows more baserunners Better than 73% at his level.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 63 batters faced this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

The signal

  • K-BB% slipping

    26.9% last season to 15.9% this one.

  • Strikeouts slipping

    35.3% last season to 27.0% this one.

  • Stuff: above average

    27.0% K — strikeout rate per batter faced — never per nine innings, which flatters a pitcher who allows more baserunners Better than 73% at his level.

  • Command: above average

    15.9% K-BB — strikeouts minus walks — the gap that survives a promotion Better than 72% at his level.

  • What the hobby pays up for

    SP sells at a discount at equal production; 27.0 is old for a prospect card.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Small sample

    63 batters faced this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

  • Pitcher

    Injury risk is materially higher and the resale market is smaller, which is why the strategy caps what share of a book pitchers can take.

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

What the hobby pays for him

A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.

Benchmark not yet established no 1st Bowman vehicle observed for this player. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

Canonical card not establishedWe have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, No base auto listed — cheapest numbered option shown; premium ratio unavailable. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.

What would make this a buy

  • On his best-priced card: past the window.
  • A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.

What is for sale right now

12 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 12 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 6 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2020 1st Bowman Chrome Draft Auto Shane Drohan Black /75 Rookie Red Sox Brewers

    /75 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 7d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data staleLast confirmed live 100h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    no sold price

    WATCH

  • Shane Drohan 2020 Bowman Chrome #CDA-SD 1st Auto Purple Refractor /250 Red Sox

    /250 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 4d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data staleLast confirmed live 86h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $20.98

    modeled ~$7.50

    WATCH

  • Shane Drohan 2020 Bowman Draft #CDA-SD 1st Chrome Refractor AUTO /499 RED SOX

    /499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 5d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data staleLast confirmed live 95h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $20.99

    no sold price

    WATCH

  • 2020 Bowman Chrome Draft Shane Drohan Gold Auto/50! SGC 9.5/10! Brewers!

    /50 · SGC 9.5 · takes offers · listed 1d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertainwhether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $146.71

    no sold price

    WATCH

  • 2020 Bowman Draft Chrome Picks Gold Refractor 45/50 Shane Drohan PSA 9 Auto 0vg0

    /50 · PSA 9 · listed 5d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertainwhether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $274.59

    no sold price

    WATCH

  • 2020 Bowman Draft Chrome Picks Black Refractor 63/75 Shane Drohan Auto 0vg0

    /75 · raw · condition not stated · listed 4d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertainwhether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $107.02

    no sold price

    WATCH

What the same money buys today

Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Shane Drohan, just what the money can do today.

Compared within $10.49–$22.03, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder5 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • Red Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $20.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $39.16, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +87%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $20.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    Scarcity
    250 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -46%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Blue Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $134.38, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    Scarcity
    150 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +541%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Refractor /99THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $107.02, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    Scarcity
    75 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -20%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

2 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 54 on the 20–80 scale, against 907 pitchers at Triple-A

What he is good at

skills overall 54 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 907 pitchers at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Stuff

    Does he miss bats?

    56

    above average · better than 73% at his level

    27.0% K

    strikeout rate per batter faced — never per nine innings, which flatters a pitcher who allows more baserunners

  • Command

    Bats missed AND strikes thrown?

    56

    above average · better than 72% at his level

    15.9% K-BB

    strikeouts minus walks — the gap that survives a promotion

  • Control

    Does he give away bases?

    51

    average · better than 55% at his level

    11.1% BB

    walk rate, inverted — lower is better from the mound

  • Run prevention

    Do the runs stay off the board?

    49

    average · better than 48% at his level · the result, not a skill

    1.54 WHIP

    walks and hits per inning, inverted — the result, and the defence behind him is in it too

  • Workload

    Is he carrying a starter's innings?

    46

    below average · better than 34% at his level · context, not a skill

    13.2 IP

    innings carried — a starter's bulk is worth what a reliever's is not

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    50

    average · better than 49% at his level · context, not a skill

    -1.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 3 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 67th percentile of the cohort, run prevention at the 48th — his tools run further ahead of his results than 85% of the players he is measured against.

The market prices the stat line, and his is behind what he is doing. That is where a card is cheap for a reason that can change.

How this is read: his skills average 67 and his run prevention sits at 48, a gap of +19. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 907 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 85th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 5.3 / 10

  • already at Triple-A
  • old for Triple-A
  • pitcher — more of them break down before they arrive

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 76% of what it wants to know — missing production, form.

How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 907 other pitchers at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

BF

63

IP

13.2

ERA

3.29

WHIP

1.54

K-BB%

15.9

better than 72%

K%

27.0

BB%

11.1

HR9

1.32

GS

2

Is this player getting better?

Down from 26.9% to 15.9% K-BB this season.

Still at Triple-A, the same level as last season.

K-BB%

26.9%15.9%

Strikeouts

35.3%27.0%

Walks

8.4%11.1%

WHIP

1.011.54

ERA

2.273.29

Last season, 190 batters faced. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market12 listed · 12 eBay-verified · 6 not shown above
Listings
12

12 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$20.98
Median ask
$76.54
Cheapest 1st auto
$20.98
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$20.98

Latest eBay verification: 4 hours ago.

The other 6 cards

  • Shane Drohan Signed 1st Bowman Chrome Auto Milwaukee Brewers Boston Red SoxWATCH
  • $134.382023 Bowman Chrome Shane Drohan Blue Refractor Auto /150 #CDA-SDWATCH
  • $39.162020 Bowman Draft Chrome Picks Refractor 236/499 Shane Drohan #CDA-SD Auto 2a9WATCH
  • $46.062020 Bowman Draft Chrome Picks Refractor 314/499 Shane Drohan #CDA-SD Auto 6u5WATCH
  • Shane Drohan Signed 1st Bowman Paper Rookie Card Auto Milwaukee Brewers Red SoxWATCH
  • 2020 Bowman Draft Shane Drohan 1st Bowman Chrome Auto #CDA-SD Red SoxPASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player