Koen Moreno
SP · Knoxville Smokies · Knoxville Smokies · Double-A · 25.0y · #6705 of 7,942 we rate
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- The player
- LONG SHOT
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Watch
16 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
38 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
All in it's $16.50, and these have been selling around $4.78.
Our take
Long-shot prospect, untested market.
Koen Moreno scores 16 out of 100 (#6705 of the 7,942 we score), and the case rests on one thing: moved up and held it — High-A to Double-A, though the prior season is a thin sample.
His core Bowman card has been selling at $1–2 off 1 confirmed sale.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 42 batters faced this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
The signal
Command: well below
2.3% K-BB — strikeouts minus walks — the gap that survives a promotion
K-BB% slipping
14.0% last season to 2.3% this one.
Strikeouts slipping
30.0% last season to 19.0% this one.
Moved up and held it
High-A to Double-A, though the prior season is a thin sample.
What the hobby pays up for
SP sells at a discount at equal production; 25.0 is old for a prospect card.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Small sample
42 batters faced this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
Command risk
Command grades 40 on the 20–80 scale (2.3% K-BB). strikeouts minus walks — the gap that survives a promotion
Pitcher
Injury risk is materially higher and the resale market is smaller, which is why the strategy caps what share of a book pitchers can take.
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how raw base 1st bowman chrome auto sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 22 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
$1.49–2.49midpoint $1.99
Evidence limited· 1 salemost recent 2026-08-22 · 24 listed now
- 7 days
- not enough sales
- 30 days
- not enough sales
- 90 days
- not enough sales
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto
Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto
The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 22 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
No good entry today
The closest to fair is 2021 1st Bowman Chrome #CPA-KMO Koen Moreno AUTO Chicago Cubs MLB Baseball at $22.34, 1023% over the $1.99 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.
That card at or under $1.99 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.
What would make this a buy
- On his best-priced card: past the window.
- A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.
What is for sale right now
38 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 38 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 32 are under "The whole live market".
2021 Bowman Chrome 1st KOEN MORENO Chicago Cubs Refractor Shimmer Gold Auto /50
/50 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 35d
Past the window · 3 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 107h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$16.50
modeled $2.15–8.36
PASS
2022 Bowman Chrome Koen Moreno 1st Blue Mojo Refractor Auto #/150 - Cubs
/150 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 9d
Past the window · 3 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 107h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$9.73
modeled $1.34–5.22
PASS
2021 Bowman Chrome Prospect Koen Moreno Blue Refractor 1st Auto /150 Cubs
/150 · raw · condition not stated · listed 86d
Past the window · 3 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 107h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$11.99
modeled $1.34–5.22
PASS
Koen Moreno 2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman purple ref. auto 204/250 Chicago Cubs
/250 · raw · condition not stated · auction · listed 8d
Past the window · 3 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 107h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$7.98
modeled $1.16–4.53
PASS
2021 Bowman Chrome Koen Moreno 1st Auto Chicago Cubs Purple Auto /250 #CPA-KMO
/250 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 93d
Past the window · 3 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 107h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$15.50
modeled $1.16–4.53
PASS
2021 1st Bowman Chrome KOEN MORENO "REFRACTOR" Autograph Prospect Auto #027/499
/499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 1d
Past the window · 3 other things in the way
$4.75
modeled $1.03–4
PASS
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder9 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $2.95, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $2.95 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $4.75, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $4.75 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +61%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Speckle Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $14.44, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $14.44 live
- Scarcity
- 299 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +204%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Purple /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $7.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $7.98 live
- Scarcity
- 250 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -45%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Blue Mojo Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $9.73, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $9.73 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +22%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Blue Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $11.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $11.99 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +23%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Green /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $15.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $15.00 live
- Scarcity
- 99 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +25%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Green Refractor /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $12.13, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $12.13 live
- Scarcity
- 99 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -19%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Gold Shimmer Refractor /50THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $16.50, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $16.50 live
- Scarcity
- 50 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +36%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
What he is good atSkills 42 on the 20–80 scale, against 567 pitchers at Double-A
What he is good at
skills overall 42 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 567 pitchers at Double-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Stuff
Does he miss bats?
44
below average · better than 26% at his level
19.0% K
strikeout rate per batter faced — never per nine innings, which flatters a pitcher who allows more baserunners
Command
Bats missed AND strikes thrown?
40
well below · better than 16% at his level
2.3% K-BB
strikeouts minus walks — the gap that survives a promotion
Control
Does he give away bases?
43
below average · better than 23% at his level
16.7% BB
walk rate, inverted — lower is better from the mound
Run prevention
Do the runs stay off the board?
44
below average · better than 26% at his level · the result, not a skill
1.78 WHIP
walks and hits per inning, inverted — the result, and the defence behind him is in it too
Workload
Is he carrying a starter's innings?
40
well below · better than 17% at his level · context, not a skill
9.0 IP
innings carried — a starter's bulk is worth what a reliever's is not
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
50
average · better than 49% at his level · context, not a skill
-1.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 3 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 22th percentile of the cohort, run prevention at the 26th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.
Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.
How this is read: his skills average 22 and his run prevention sits at 26, a gap of -4. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 566 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 42th percentile.
Will he get there?
Long shot 4.2 / 10
- already at Double-A
- old for Double-A
- pitcher — more of them break down before they arrive
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.
How he is playingThe Double-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 567 other pitchers at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
BF
42
IP
9.0
ERA
7.00
WHIP
1.78
K-BB%
2.3
better than 16%
K%
19.0
BB%
16.7
HR9
2.00
GS
1
Is this player getting better?
Down from 14.0% to 2.3% K-BB, but that came with a move up to Double-A — a step back at a harder level is normal — but last season was a small sample, so go easy on it.
Moved up from High-A to Double-A — the pitching is harder this year.
K-BB%
14.0%▼2.3%
Strikeouts
30.0%▼19.0%
Walks
16.0%→16.7%
WHIP
1.33▲1.78
ERA
2.25▲7.00
Last season, 50 batters faced — a small enough sample that these gaps might just be luck. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market38 listed · 0 eBay-verified · 32 not shown above
- Listings
- 38
- Lowest live
- $2.95
- Median ask
- $10.69
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $2.95
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $4.75
0 eBay-verified
The other 32 cards
- $6.502021 Bowman Chrome Koen Moreno Refractor 1st Bowman Auto 114/499!PASS
- $11.602021 Koen Moreno Bowman Chrome 1st Refractor Auto RC 138/499 #CPA-KMO (J566)PASS
- —Koen Moreno 2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Prospect Refractor Auto #d /499 CubsPASS
- $2.952021 Bowman Chrome 1st Koen Moreno Auto #CPA-KMOPASS
- $3.44KOEN MORENO 2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Prospect Autograph #CPA-KMO Chicago Cubs AutoPASS
- $3.742020 Bowman Chrome Koen Moreno #CPA-KMO 1st Bowman Auto! PASS
- $3.852021 Bowman Chrome Prospects Koen Moreno #CPA-KMO 1st Bowman Auto CubsPASS
- $4.632021 Bowman Chrome #CPA-KMO Koen Moreno 1st Bowman Rookie RC Auto - Chicago CubsPASS
- $4.832021 1st Bowman Chrome #CPA-KMO AUTO Koen Moreno CUBSPASS
- $5.252021 Bowman Chrome Koen Moreno 1st Auto CPA-KMO Prospect Chicago CubsPASS
- $5.742021 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST PROSPECT AUTO KOEN MORENO CUBSPASS
- $6.99KOEN MORENO AUTO 1st 2021 Bowman Chrome Prospects Autograph Rookie Card RCPASS
- $7.882021 Bowman Chrome Koen Moreno 1st Prospect Auto #CPA-KMO CubsPASS
- $10.692021 Bowman Chrome Koen Moreno 1st Prospect Auto Autograph #CPA-KMOPASS
- $10.962021 Koen Moreno 1st Auto Bowman Chrome # CPA-KMO - Chicago CubsPASS
- $13.942021 Bowman Chrome Koen Moreno Prospect 1st Bowman AUTO Chicago CubsPASS
- $13.982021 Bowman Chrome - Koen Moreno - Auto 1st Rookie RC CPA-KMOPASS
- $13.99KOEN MORENO 2021 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST RC AUTO #CDA-KMOPASS
- $20.002021 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Koen Moreno!🔥 HOT! Cubs Base AutoPASS
- $22.342021 1st Bowman Chrome #CPA-KMO Koen Moreno AUTO Chicago Cubs MLB BaseballPASS
- —2021 Bowman Chrome Koen Moreno Auto #CPA-KMO Cubs 1st BowmanPASS
- —2021 Bowman Chrome Koen Moreno Prospect Autographs Auto Cubs 1st RookiePASS
- —2021 Bowman 1st Chrome Koen Moreno Auto #CPA-KMO Chicago Cubs ProspectPASS
- —2021 Bowman Chrome Koen Moreno 1st Auto CPA-KMO x2PASS
- —Koen Moreno 2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Prospect Autograph Auto CubsPASS
- —2021 1st Bowman Chrome Koen Moreno Auto #CPA-KMO Chicago CubsPASS
- $12.132021 Bowman Chrome HTA Green Atomic Refractor 56/99 Koen Moreno Auto 0l44PASS
- $22.372021 Bowman Chrome Prospect Blue Refractor /150 Koen Moreno #CPA-KMO Auto z7dPASS
- $33.072021 Bowman Chrome Prospect Blue Refractor 82/150 Koen Moreno #CPA-KMO Auto 3hdPASS
- $6.072021 Bowman Chrome Prospect 1st Auto #CPA-KMO Koen Moreno RC Base AutoPASS
- $14.442021 Bowman Chrome Prospect Speckle Refractor /299 Koen Moreno Auto 1n21PASS
- $15.00Koen Moreno 2021 Bowman Draft 1st Bowman Chrome Green True Auto /99 CPA-KMO CubsPASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- What a modeled fair value means — at least one value on this page was modeled rather than taken from a sale
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run