Oneil Cruz
CF · Indianapolis Indians · Triple-A · 27.0y · #6420 of 7,949 we rate
Next: Today 10:35 PM at Toledo Mud Hens
- The player
- LONG SHOT
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Watch
19 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
4 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
We can't see what this costs all in, so there's nothing to judge yet.
Our take
Long-shot prospect, untested market.
Oneil Cruz scores 19 out of 100 (#6420 of the 7,949 we score), and the case rests on one thing: plate discipline: plus-plus — 28.6% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 99% at his level.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 7 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
The signal
Contact: bottom of the scale
42.9% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Plate discipline: plus-plus
28.6% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 99% at his level.
Premium position
CF — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
What the hobby pays up for
Little power for his level (10th percentile); CF is a position the hobby pays up for.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Small sample
7 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
Swing-and-miss
Contact grades 34 on the 20–80 scale (42.9% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Baseball vs card market
INSUFFICIENT MARKET EVIDENCE- The baseball
- trajectory unmeasured
- The cards
- no measurable move
Why this divergence exists
We have not measured his baseball trajectory, so there is nothing to set the card market against.
Compare him with every player whose baseball has outrun his cards.
What the hobby pays for him
A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.
Benchmark not yet established — candidates seen, none corroborated by enough sellers. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
Best Bowman card to own
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
Secondary and avoid: 1 live listing is a certified auto that is not (or not provably) his 1st Bowman Chrome — a later or lesser vehicle, ranked below the canonical card whatever its serial number.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, Base at $115.50 — the numbered ones cost more than they are worth, on print run alone. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.
Live listings that fit the thesis
Ranked by card fit, identity and listing quality — never by what pays us, and never cheapest-first.
- 1Topps 2016 Bowman Chrome Oneil Cruz RC Auto Prospects BCAP-OC PSA 70386036Secondary auto · identity uncertain · no valuation · best offer$115.50
See listing
What would make this a buy
- On his best-priced card: past the window.
- A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.
What is for sale right now
4 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 4 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 4 worth looking at, best first.
2016 Bowman Chrome Prospects Autographs Oneil Cruz Blue Refractor /150 1st Auto
/150 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 71d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
—
modeled $75–93
WATCH
2016 Bowman Chrome 1st O’Neil Cruz Purple Refractor /250 Auto Pirates
/250 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 13d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
—
modeled $65–80.60
WATCH
2016 Oneil Cruz 1st Bowman Chrome Autograph Auto Rookie RC #BCPA-OC
base · raw · condition not stated · listed 886d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
—
sold $50–62
WATCH
Topps 2016 Bowman Chrome Oneil Cruz RC Auto Prospects BCAP-OC PSA 70386036
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 2d
Not a core card · 4 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$115.50
no sold price
WATCH
What the same money buys today
Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Oneil Cruz, just what the money can do today.
- Walker Jenkinsbase$117.98Watch
- Rainiel Rodriguezbase$69.99Watch46% under fair value
- Josue Briceñobase$94.50Watch6% under fair value
Compared within $57.75–$121.28, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
Catalyst timelineno logged or derived event yet
No event on his timeline yet — no logged promotion, call-up or injury, and no level change between the two seasons we hold. Derived events appear as stat lines land; logged ones appear with their source.
Every event on the catalyst tracker carries the same grade.
His canonical cardsno card identity established yet
A card reaches verified only from a checklist source. A seller's title can make it likely when independent sellers agree, and never more. Cards with a page of their own link to it.
No card identity has been established for him yet. A card enters this list when independent sellers describe the same card the same way or a confirmed sale names it — a single seller's title never does.
What he is good atSkills 47 on the 20–80 scale, against 747 hitters at Triple-A
What he is good at
skills overall 47 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 747 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
34
bottom of the scale · better than 5% at his level
42.9% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
37
well below · better than 10% at his level
.000 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
73
plus-plus · better than 99% at his level
28.6% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
44
below average · better than 29% at his level
0 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
34
bottom of the scale · better than 5% at his level · the result, not a skill
.286 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
47
average · better than 37% at his level · context, not a skill
-1.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 36th percentile of the cohort, production at the 5th — his tools run further ahead of his results than 92% of the players he is measured against.
The market prices the stat line, and his is behind what he is doing. That is where a card is cheap for a reason that can change.
How this is read: his skills average 36 and his production sits at 5, a gap of +31. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 746 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 92th percentile.
Will he get there?
Real chance 6.0 / 10
- already at Triple-A
- old for Triple-A
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 76% of what it wants to know — missing production, form.
How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 747 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
7
AVG
.000
OBP
.286
SLG
.000
OPS
.286
better than 5%
HR
0
SB
0
BB%
28.6
K%
42.9
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market4 listed · 0 eBay-verified
- Listings
- 4
- Lowest live
- $115.50
- Median ask
- $115.50
- Cheapest 1st auto
- —
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- —
0 eBay-verified
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- What a modeled fair value means — at least one value on this page was modeled rather than taken from a sale
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run