Spencer Arrighetti
SP · Buffalo Bisons · Triple-A · 26.0y · #702 of 7,949 we rate
Next: Today 10:05 PM vs Worcester Red Sox
- The player
- SOLID
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Watch
65 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
2 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
We can't see what this costs all in, so there's nothing to judge yet.
Our take
Solid prospect, untested market.
Spencer Arrighetti scores 65 out of 100 (#702 of the 7,949 we score), and the case rests on one thing: stuff: plus — 30.4% K — strikeout rate per batter faced — never per nine innings, which flatters a pitcher who allows more baserunners Better than 85% at his level.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 79 batters faced this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
The signal
Stuff: plus
30.4% K — strikeout rate per batter faced — never per nine innings, which flatters a pitcher who allows more baserunners Better than 85% at his level.
Moved up and held it
Double-A to Triple-A, though the prior season is a thin sample.
Command: plus
19.0% K-BB — strikeouts minus walks — the gap that survives a promotion Better than 82% at his level.
What the hobby pays up for
SP sells at a discount at equal production; 26.0 is old for a prospect card.
Strikeouts improving
23.1% last season to 30.4% this one.
Why now
Promoted Double-A → Triple-A
A step up we detected and logged.
What could go wrong
Small sample
79 batters faced this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
Pitcher
Injury risk is materially higher and the resale market is smaller, which is why the strategy caps what share of a book pitchers can take.
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
Baseball vs card market
INSUFFICIENT MARKET EVIDENCE- The baseball
- momentum 41/100
- The cards
- no measurable move
Why this divergence exists
His development is measured (momentum 41/100) but his card market is not: not enough dated prices on both sides of any window.
That is a real state, not a gap in the page. A prospect can be improving faster than any card of his has traded, and until sales exist there is no market to be ahead of or behind.
Compare him with every player whose baseball has outrun his cards.
What the hobby pays for him
A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.
Benchmark not yet established — no 1st Bowman vehicle observed for this player. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
Best Bowman card to own
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, No base auto listed — cheapest numbered option shown; premium ratio unavailable. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.
Live listings that fit the thesis
Ranked by card fit, identity and listing quality — never by what pays us, and never cheapest-first.
- 12023 Bowman 1st Spencer Arrighetti AUTO Gold #ed 25/50 RC Other vehicle · title claims 1st — not verified · no valuation · best offer$255.17See listing
What would make this a buy
- On his best-priced card: past the window.
- A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.
What is for sale right now
2 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 2 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 2 worth looking at, best first.
2023 Bowman 1st Spencer Arrighetti Chrome Prospect Auto GOLD 12/50 PSA 9
/50 · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 60d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 51h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
no sold price
WATCH
2023 Bowman 1st Spencer Arrighetti AUTO Gold #ed 25/50 RC
/50 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 94d
Not a core card · 4 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether the signature is factory-certified or added later
$255.17
no sold price
WATCH
What the same money buys today
Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Spencer Arrighetti, just what the money can do today.
- Walker Jenkinsbase$207.98Watch31% under fair value
- Luke AdamsGold Lava Refractor · /50$199.99Watch
- Josue BriceñoTrue Green · /99$256.00Watch
Compared within $127.58–$267.93, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
Catalyst timeline1 event, each with its evidence grade
- DERIVEDPromoted Double-A → Triple-Adate not recorded
Level changed between his 2025 and 2026 stat lines (MLB Stats API, official). The date of the move is not recorded here.
Why it matters
- What happened
- Promoted Double-A → Triple-A. Level changed between his 2025 and 2026 stat lines (MLB Stats API, official). The date of the move is not recorded here.
- Why it matters
- A promotion is the club's own read of the player, and the level a card was made at is the level the hobby prices it against. Each rung up is a re-rating event.
- What changed in the thesis
- Thesis intact — baseball momentum 41/100 — tracking the thesis.
- Has the card market responded?
- Cannot say: card-price momentum is unmeasured — not enough dated prices on both sides of any window. No sold evidence means no market response to read, and a listing's asking price is not one.
- What to watch next
- Whether the strikeout and walk rates hold at the new level over a real sample — the first 100 plate appearances say little.
Every event on the catalyst tracker carries the same grade.
His canonical cardsno card identity established yet
A card reaches verified only from a checklist source. A seller's title can make it likely when independent sellers agree, and never more. Cards with a page of their own link to it.
No card identity has been established for him yet. A card enters this list when independent sellers describe the same card the same way or a confirmed sale names it — a single seller's title never does.
What he is good atSkills 57 on the 20–80 scale, against 910 pitchers at Triple-A
What he is good at
skills overall 57 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 910 pitchers at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Stuff
Does he miss bats?
60
plus · better than 85% at his level
30.4% K
strikeout rate per batter faced — never per nine innings, which flatters a pitcher who allows more baserunners
Command
Bats missed AND strikes thrown?
59
plus · better than 82% at his level
19.0% K-BB
strikeouts minus walks — the gap that survives a promotion
Control
Does he give away bases?
51
average · better than 52% at his level
11.4% BB
walk rate, inverted — lower is better from the mound
Run prevention
Do the runs stay off the board?
66
plus-plus · better than 94% at his level · the result, not a skill
0.84 WHIP
walks and hits per inning, inverted — the result, and the defence behind him is in it too
Workload
Is he carrying a starter's innings?
48
average · better than 43% at his level · context, not a skill
20.1 IP
innings carried — a starter's bulk is worth what a reliever's is not
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
54
above average · better than 65% at his level · context, not a skill
0.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 3 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 73th percentile of the cohort, run prevention at the 94th — his results run further ahead of his tools than 86% of the players he is measured against.
The stat line is doing the selling and the skills underneath it are not carrying it. Pay for the line and you are paying for the part that does not repeat.
How this is read: his skills average 73 and his run prevention sits at 94, a gap of -21. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 910 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 14th percentile.
Will he get there?
Real chance 5.3 / 10
- already at Triple-A
- old for Triple-A
- pitcher — more of them break down before they arrive
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.
How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 910 other pitchers at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
BF
79
IP
20.1
ERA
1.77
WHIP
0.84
K-BB%
19.0
better than 82%
K%
30.4
BB%
11.4
HR9
0.44
GS
5
Is this player getting better?
About the same as last season — 19.3% to 19.0% K-BB — but last season was a small sample, so go easy on it.
Moved up from Double-A to Triple-A — the pitching is harder this year.
K-BB%
19.3%→19.0%
Strikeouts
23.1%▲30.4%
Walks
3.8%▲11.4%
WHIP
0.95▼0.84
ERA
2.84▼1.77
Last season, 26 batters faced — a small enough sample that these gaps might just be luck. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market2 listed · 0 eBay-verified
- Listings
- 2
- Lowest live
- $255.17
- Median ask
- $255.17
- Cheapest 1st auto
- —
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- —
0 eBay-verified
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run