Bowman Sniper

Dylan MacLean

SP · Frisco RoughRiders · Frisco RoughRiders · Double-A · 24.0y · #4222 of 7,942 we rate

Next: Wed 12:05 AM vs Amarillo Sod Poodles

The player
FRINGE

35 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

34 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait

Closest of his is Dylan MacLean 2021 Bowman Chrome Prospect…. Waiting on sales.

Our take

Fringe prospect, untested market.

Dylan MacLean scores 35 out of 100 (#4222 of the 7,942 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — 0.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 70% of the players there.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: pitcher — injury risk is materially higher and the resale market is smaller, which is why the strategy caps what share of a book pitchers can take.

The signal

  • Young for the level

    0.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 70% of the players there.

  • Stuff: below average

    19.6% K — strikeout rate per batter faced — never per nine innings, which flatters a pitcher who allows more baserunners

  • K-BB% slipping

    17.5% last season to 11.9% this one.

  • Strikeouts slipping

    22.8% last season to 19.6% this one.

  • Control: plus

    7.7% BB — walk rate, inverted — lower is better from the mound Better than 81% at his level.

  • Moved up and held it

    High-A to Double-A.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Pitcher

    Injury risk is materially higher and the resale market is smaller, which is why the strategy caps what share of a book pitchers can take.

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Modeled value only

    The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-DMA — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 8 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

No price on this card yet

sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 9 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-DMA

Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto

The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 8 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, /499 at $4.99 costs 1.25× base, and print run alone suggests 1.15×, with no measured sales to check it against — best balance available. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.

What would make this a buy

  • Waiting on sales
  • Player not there yet

What is for sale right now

34 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 34 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 28 are under "The whole live market".

  • Dylan MacLean 2021 Bowman Chrome Prospect Blue Refractor Auto 1st Bowman /150

    /150 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 1441d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data staleLast confirmed live 95h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    modeled ~$5.75

    WATCH

  • Dylan MacLean 2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Purple Refractor /250 Rangers

    /250 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 18d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data staleLast confirmed live 95h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $7.99

    modeled ~$12.71

    WATCH

  • ⚾️2021 Bowman Chrome DYLAN MacLEAN 1st Auto Purple Refractor /250 CPA-DMA⚾️

    /250 · raw · condition not stated · listed 787d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data staleLast confirmed live 95h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    modeled ~$12.71

    WATCH

  • DYLAN MACLEAN 2024 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST SPECKLE REFRACTOR RC AUTO 076/299 #CPA-DMA

    /299 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 329d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data staleLast confirmed live 95h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $13.99

    modeled ~$8.00

    WATCH

  • 2021 Bowman Chrome Dylan MacLean Speckle Refractor Auto 138/299 Bowman 1st Texas

    /299 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 1947d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data staleLast confirmed live 95h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    modeled ~$8.00

    WATCH

  • 2021 BOWMAN CHROME REFRACTOR /499 1ST PROSPECT AUTO DYLAN MACLEAN RANGERS

    /499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 7d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $4.99

    modeled ~$7.00

    WATCH

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder6 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $3.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
  • SapphireTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $6.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +50%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $4.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -17%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Speckle Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $13.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    Scarcity
    299 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +180%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $7.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    Scarcity
    250 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -43%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Green Shimmer Refractor /99THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $15.02, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    Scarcity
    99 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +88%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

1 listing sits in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 51 on the 20–80 scale, against 567 pitchers at Double-A

What he is good at

skills overall 51 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 567 pitchers at Double-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Stuff

    Does he miss bats?

    44

    below average · better than 29% at his level

    19.6% K

    strikeout rate per batter faced — never per nine innings, which flatters a pitcher who allows more baserunners

  • Command

    Bats missed AND strikes thrown?

    51

    average · better than 53% at his level

    11.9% K-BB

    strikeouts minus walks — the gap that survives a promotion

  • Control

    Does he give away bases?

    59

    plus · better than 81% at his level

    7.7% BB

    walk rate, inverted — lower is better from the mound

  • Run prevention

    Do the runs stay off the board?

    54

    above average · better than 66% at his level · the result, not a skill

    1.39 WHIP

    walks and hits per inning, inverted — the result, and the defence behind him is in it too

  • Workload

    Is he carrying a starter's innings?

    64

    plus · better than 92% at his level · context, not a skill

    90.2 IP

    innings carried — a starter's bulk is worth what a reliever's is not

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    55

    above average · better than 70% at his level · context, not a skill

    0.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 3 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 54th percentile of the cohort, run prevention at the 66th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 54 and his run prevention sits at 66, a gap of -12. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 566 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 26th percentile.

Will he get there?

Long shot 4.5 / 10

  • already at Double-A
  • old for Double-A
  • pitcher — more of them break down before they arrive

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.

How he is playingThe Double-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 567 other pitchers at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

BF

388

IP

90.2

ERA

4.76

WHIP

1.39

K-BB%

11.9

better than 53%

K%

19.6

BB%

7.7

HR9

1.59

GS

17

Is this player getting better?

Down from 17.5% to 11.9% K-BB, but that came with a move up to Double-A — a step back at a harder level is normal.

Moved up from High-A to Double-A — the pitching is harder this year.

K-BB%

17.5%11.9%

Strikeouts

22.8%19.6%

Walks

5.3%7.7%

WHIP

0.941.39

ERA

3.344.76

Last season, 285 batters faced. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market34 listed · 34 eBay-verified · 28 not shown above
Listings
34

34 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$3.99
Median ask
$10.92
Cheapest 1st auto
$3.99
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$4.99

Latest eBay verification: 2 hours ago.

The other 28 cards

  • $10.882021 Bowman Chrome DYLAN MACLEAN Rangers Prospect Refractor 1st Auto SP /499WATCH
  • 2021 bowman Chrome Dylan Maclean Atomic Auto /100 PSA 9WATCH
  • $3.992021 Bowman Chrome #CPA-DMA Dylan MacLean 1st Prospect Auto RCWATCH
  • $4.592021 Bowman Chrome Dylan MacLean 1st Bowman Auto #CPA-DMA Texas Rangers RookieWATCH
  • $4.642021 Bowman Dylan MacLean Chrome Auto Texas Rangers #CPA-DMA 1st ProspectWATCH
  • $4.992021 Bowman Chrome Dylan MacLean 1st Bowman Auto #CPA-DMA Texas RangersWATCH
  • $6.00Dylan MacLean 2021 Bowman Chrome Sapphire 1st Prospect Auto #BSPA-DMAWATCH
  • $6.492021 Bowman Chrome Sapphire Dylan MacLean 1st Prospect Auto #BSPA-DMA RangersWATCH
  • $6.502021 Bowman Chrome Baseball 1st Bowman #CPA-DMA Dylan MacLean RC AUTO RANGERSWATCH
  • $6.992021 Bowman Chrome Dylan MacLean 1st Bowman Auto #CPA-DMA Texas Rangers RookieWATCH
  • $8.48Dylan MacLean 2021 Bowman Chrome Sapphire 1st Bowman Auto Autograph #BSPA-DMAWATCH
  • $10.962021 Dylan Maclean 1st Auto Bowman Chrome # CPA-DMA - Texas RangersWATCH
  • $11.302021 Bowman Chrome Sapphire Dylan MacLean 1st Auto BSPA-DMA Prospect RangersWATCH
  • $15.022021 Bowman Chrome Prospects Green Shimmer Refractor /99 Dylan MacLean Auto 0rz7WATCH
  • $16.492021 Bowman Sapphire Chrome Prospects Auto Dylan MacLean Autograph RC 1st RookieWATCH
  • Topps 2021 Bowman Chrome Dylan MacLean 1st Bowman Auto Rangers #CPA-DMAWATCH
  • Topps 2021 Bowman Sapphire Dylan MacLean 1st Bowman Auto Blue Shimmer BSPA-DMAWATCH
  • 2021 Bowman Chrome Sapphire Dylan MacLean 1st Prospect Auto #BSPA-DMA RangersWATCH
  • 2018 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST PROSPECT AUTO DYLAN MACLEAN RANGERSWATCH
  • Dylan MacLean 2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Prospect Auto RangersWATCH
  • 2021 Bowman Chrome Sapphire Dylan MacLean 1st Prospect Auto #BSPA-DMA RangersWATCH
  • $12.712021 Bowman Chrome Prospects Purple Refractor /250 Dylan MacLean Auto 3hdWATCH
  • $15.022021 Bowman Chrome Prospects Purple Refractor 196/250 Dylan MacLean Auto lh0WATCH
  • $16.172021 Bowman Chrome Prospects Purple Refractor 151/250 Dylan MacLean Auto 1ab1WATCH
  • $23.072021 Bowman Chrome Prospects Speckle Refractor 273/299 Dylan MacLean Auto 1ab1WATCH
  • $10.992021 Bowman Chrome Prospects Refractor /499 Dylan MacLean #CPA-DMA Auto 1dl2WATCH
  • $11.562021 Bowman Chrome Prospects Refractor 276/499 Dylan MacLean #CPA-DMA Auto 16zoWATCH
  • $12.722021 Bowman Chrome Prospects Refractor 25/499 Dylan MacLean #CPA-DMA Auto 1ab1WATCH
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player