Nathan Dettmer
SP · Midland RockHounds · Midland RockHounds · Double-A · 24.0y · #3112 of 7,942 we rate
Next: Wed 12:05 AM at San Antonio Missions
- The player
- FRINGE
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Wait
44 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
2 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Closest of his is NATHAN DETTMER 2023 BOWMAN CHROME AUTO…. Waiting on sales.
Our take
Fringe prospect, untested market.
Nathan Dettmer scores 44 out of 100 (#3112 of the 7,942 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — 0.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 70% of the players there.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: pitcher — injury risk is materially higher and the resale market is smaller, which is why the strategy caps what share of a book pitchers can take.
The signal
Young for the level
0.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 70% of the players there.
Stuff: below average
20.8% K — strikeout rate per batter faced — never per nine innings, which flatters a pitcher who allows more baserunners
Control: plus-plus
3.8% BB — walk rate, inverted — lower is better from the mound Better than 96% at his level.
Moved up and held it
Low-A to Double-A.
Command: plus
17.0% K-BB — strikeouts minus walks — the gap that survives a promotion Better than 80% at his level.
What the hobby pays up for
SP sells at a discount at equal production; 24.0 is old for a prospect card.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Pitcher
Injury risk is materially higher and the resale market is smaller, which is why the strategy caps what share of a book pitchers can take.
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
What the hobby pays for him
A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.
Benchmark not yet established — no 1st Bowman vehicle observed for this player. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
No live ask and no confirmed sale on any version of his cards, so there is nothing here to call good or bad value.
What would make this a buy
- Waiting on sales
- Player not there yet
What is for sale right now
2 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 2 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 2 worth looking at, best first.
NATHAN DETTMER 2023 BOWMAN CHROME AUTO DRAFT 1ST AQUA WAVE REFRACTOR /125
/125 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 26d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
—
no sold price
WATCH
2023 BOWMAN CHROME PURPLE /250 1ST AUTO PROSPECT BDC-146 Nathan Dettmer As RC
/250 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 26d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
—
modeled ~$10.50
WATCH
What the same money buys today
Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Nathan Dettmer, just what the money can do today.
- Pedro Ramírezbase$35.94Watch14% under fair value
- Brandon Comptonbase$35.88Watch28% under fair value
- Cole CarriggRefractor$14.98Watch42% under fair value
Compared within under $40.00, your stated ceiling. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
What he is good atSkills 57 on the 20–80 scale, against 567 pitchers at Double-A
What he is good at
skills overall 57 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 567 pitchers at Double-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Stuff
Does he miss bats?
46
below average · better than 36% at his level
20.8% K
strikeout rate per batter faced — never per nine innings, which flatters a pitcher who allows more baserunners
Command
Bats missed AND strikes thrown?
58
plus · better than 80% at his level
17.0% K-BB
strikeouts minus walks — the gap that survives a promotion
Control
Does he give away bases?
68
plus-plus · better than 96% at his level
3.8% BB
walk rate, inverted — lower is better from the mound
Run prevention
Do the runs stay off the board?
55
above average · better than 68% at his level · the result, not a skill
1.38 WHIP
walks and hits per inning, inverted — the result, and the defence behind him is in it too
Workload
Is he carrying a starter's innings?
50
average · better than 50% at his level · context, not a skill
30.1 IP
innings carried — a starter's bulk is worth what a reliever's is not
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
55
above average · better than 70% at his level · context, not a skill
0.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 3 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 71th percentile of the cohort, run prevention at the 68th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.
Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.
How this is read: his skills average 71 and his run prevention sits at 68, a gap of +3. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 566 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 60th percentile.
Will he get there?
Long shot 4.5 / 10
- already at Double-A
- old for Double-A
- pitcher — more of them break down before they arrive
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.
How he is playingThe Double-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 567 other pitchers at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
BF
130
IP
30.1
ERA
5.64
WHIP
1.38
K-BB%
17.0
better than 80%
K%
20.8
BB%
3.8
HR9
2.37
GS
5
Is this player getting better?
Missing more bats and walking fewer batters than last season, against better hitters — 10.2% to 17.0% K-BB after moving up to Double-A. That is the shape of a breakout.
Moved up from Low-A to Double-A — the pitching is harder this year.
K-BB%
10.2%▲17.0%
Strikeouts
18.7%▲20.8%
Walks
8.5%▼3.8%
WHIP
1.64▼1.38
ERA
5.42→5.64
Last season, 364 batters faced. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market2 listed · 2 eBay-verified
- Listings
- 2
- Lowest seen
- —
- Median ask
- —
- Cheapest 1st auto
- —
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- —
2 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 37 minutes ago.
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run