Joel Díaz
SP · Brooklyn Cyclones · Brooklyn Cyclones · High-A · 22.0y · #6182 of 7,942 we rate
Next: Tue 10:40 PM vs Frederick Keys
- The player
- LONG SHOT
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Wait
20 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
34 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Closest of his is 2023 Bowman Chrome Joel Diaz 1st Speckle… at $35.98. Waiting on sales.
Our take
Long-shot prospect, untested market.
Joel Díaz scores 20 out of 100 (#6182 of the 7,942 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +1.0y vs his level at High-A — younger than 86% of the players there.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: pitcher — injury risk is materially higher and the resale market is smaller, which is why the strategy caps what share of a book pitchers can take.
The signal
Young for the level
+1.0y vs his level at High-A — younger than 86% of the players there.
Command: below average
4.9% K-BB — strikeouts minus walks — the gap that survives a promotion
K-BB% slipping
16.3% last season to 4.9% this one.
Strikeouts slipping
21.9% last season to 20.9% this one.
What the hobby pays up for
SP sells at a discount at equal production.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Pitcher
Injury risk is materially higher and the resale market is smaller, which is why the strategy caps what share of a book pitchers can take.
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-JDZ — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 20 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
No price on this card yet
sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 24 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-JDZ
Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto
The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 20 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, Base at $2.50 — the numbered ones cost more than they are worth, on print run alone. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.
What would make this a buy
- Waiting on sales
- Player not there yet
What is for sale right now
34 cards of his are listed, 1 held back on condition or a broken price · 0 of the 33 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 27 are under "The whole live market".
2023 Bowman Chrome Joel Diaz 1st Speckle Refractor Auto /299 Mets Mint PSA 9
/299 · PSA 9 · listed 826d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
$35.98
no sold price
WATCH
2023 Joel Diaz Bowman Chrome 1st Speckle Refractor Auto RC 27/299 (H1279)
/299 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 4d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 91h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$21.60
modeled ~$5.00
WATCH
Joel Diaz 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Refractor /499 Mets
/499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 139d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 95h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$10.99
modeled ~$9.00
WATCH
Joel Diaz Auto 2023 1st Bowman Chrome Prospect Autographs #CPA-JDZ New York Mets
base · raw · condition not stated · listed 5d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
$2.50
modeled ~$5.00
WATCH
2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Joel Diaz Auto #CPA-JDZ
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 51d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
$2.95
modeled ~$5.00
WATCH
2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Joel Diaz Auto #CPA-JDZ
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 51d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
$2.95
modeled ~$5.00
WATCH
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder4 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $2.50, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $2.50 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $10.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $10.99 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +340%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Speckle Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $19.04, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $19.04 live
- Scarcity
- 299 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +73%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $19.04, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $19.04 live
- Scarcity
- 250 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- 0%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
1 listing sits in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 45 on the 20–80 scale, against 620 pitchers at High-A
What he is good at
skills overall 45 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 620 pitchers at High-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Stuff
Does he miss bats?
47
average · better than 39% at his level
20.9% K
strikeout rate per batter faced — never per nine innings, which flatters a pitcher who allows more baserunners
Command
Bats missed AND strikes thrown?
44
below average · better than 27% at his level
4.9% K-BB
strikeouts minus walks — the gap that survives a promotion
Control
Does he give away bases?
45
below average · better than 30% at his level
16.0% BB
walk rate, inverted — lower is better from the mound
Run prevention
Do the runs stay off the board?
45
below average · better than 32% at his level · the result, not a skill
1.80 WHIP
walks and hits per inning, inverted — the result, and the defence behind him is in it too
Workload
Is he carrying a starter's innings?
55
above average · better than 70% at his level · context, not a skill
44.1 IP
innings carried — a starter's bulk is worth what a reliever's is not
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
61
plus · better than 86% at his level · context, not a skill
+1.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 3 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 32th percentile of the cohort, run prevention at the 32th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.
Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.
How this is read: his skills average 32 and his run prevention sits at 32, a gap of 0. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 620 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 51th percentile.
Will he get there?
Long shot 3.5 / 10
- old for High-A
- pitcher — more of them break down before they arrive
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 76% of what it wants to know — missing production, form.
How he is playingThe High-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 620 other pitchers at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
BF
206
IP
44.1
ERA
6.29
WHIP
1.80
K-BB%
4.9
better than 27%
K%
20.9
BB%
16.0
HR9
0.61
GS
9
Is this player getting better?
Down from 16.3% to 4.9% K-BB this season.
Still at High-A, the same level as last season.
K-BB%
16.3%▼4.9%
Strikeouts
21.9%▼20.9%
Walks
5.6%▲16.0%
WHIP
1.23▲1.80
ERA
3.80▲6.29
Last season, 448 batters faced. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market34 listed · 34 eBay-verified · 27 not shown above
- Listings
- 34
- Lowest live
- $2.50
- Median ask
- $9.99
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $2.50
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $10.99
34 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 2 hours ago.
The other 27 cards
- $2.952023 Bowman Chrome 1st Joel Diaz Auto #CPA-JDZWATCH
- $2.952023 Bowman Chrome 1st Joel Diaz Auto #CPA-JDZWATCH
- $6.99Joel Diaz 2023 1st Bowman Chrome Rookie Auto #CPA-JDZ New York MetsWATCH
- $7.392023 Topps Chrome 1st Bowman Joel Diaz Rookie Auto #CPA-JDZ New York MetsWATCH
- $7.89JOEL DIAZ 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Prospect Autograph Auto RC #CPA-JDZWATCH
- $8.002023 Bowman Chrome Joel Diaz Prospect 1st Autograph Auto #CPA-JDZ MetsWATCH
- $9.002023 Bowman Chrome 1st Joel Diaz Auto New York Mets #CPA-JDZWATCH
- $9.612023 Bowman Chrome Joel Diaz 1st Autograph Auto New York Mets #CPA-JDZWATCH
- $9.88JOEL DIAZ 2023 Bowman Chrome #CPA-JDZ 1st AutoWATCH
- $9.99Joel Diaz 2023 1st Bowman Chrome Auto Prospect Autographs Card New York MetsWATCH
- $11.24JOEL DIAZ 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Prospect Autograph Auto RC #CPA-JDZWATCH
- $15.00Joel Diaz 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Year Prospect Autograph Auto New York Mets #1WATCH
- $15.00Joel Diaz 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Year Prospect Autograph Auto New York Mets #2WATCH
- —Joel Diaz 2023 Bowman Chrome Prospect 1st Auto #CPA-JDZ New York MetsWATCH
- —2023 Bowman Draft Chrome Joel Diaz Auto #CDA-JDZ Mets 1st BowmanWATCH
- —2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Joel Diaz Auto - MetsWATCH
- —Joel Diaz 2023 1st Bowman Chrome Rookie Auto #CPA-JDZ New York MetsWATCH
- —2023 Bowman Chrome Joel Diaz Auto New York Mets #CPA-JDZ 1st ProspectWATCH
- —2023 Bowman Chrome Joel Diaz 1st AutoWATCH
- $15.47JOEL DIAZ 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Rookie #CPA-JDZ New York MetsWATCH
- $17.252023 Bowman Chrome🔥Joel Diaz🔥1st AutoWATCH
- —Joel Diaz 2023 Bowman Chrome Auto CPA-JDZ New York Mets RC Rookie 1stWATCH
- $19.042023 Bowman Chrome Prospect Purple Refractor /250 Joel Diaz #CPA-JDZ Auto 1bi0WATCH
- $19.042023 Bowman Chrome Prospect Speckle Refractor /299 Joel Diaz #CPA-JDZ Auto 1bi0WATCH
- —Bowman 2022 Bowman Chrome Auto Joel Diaz CPA-JDZ 1st Ed MetsWATCH
- $11.862023 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor 451/499 Joel Diaz #CPA-JDZ Auto 1n8aWATCH
- $28.822023 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor 38/499 Joel Diaz #CPA-JDZ Auto 00q0WATCH
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run