Erik Rivera
SP · Worcester Red Sox · Worcester Red Sox · Triple-A · 25.0y · #5457 of 7,942 we rate
Next: Tue 10:05 PM at Buffalo Bisons
- The player
- LONG SHOT
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Watch
26 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
16 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Nobody has logged a completed sale for this card, so we can't say what it's worth.
Our take
Long-shot prospect, untested market.
Erik Rivera scores 26 out of 100 (#5457 of the 7,942 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +1.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 80% of the players there.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 15 batters faced this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
The signal
Young for the level
+1.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 80% of the players there.
Control: bottom of the scale
33.3% BB — walk rate, inverted — lower is better from the mound
K-BB% slipping
11.1% last season to -13.3% this one.
Strikeouts slipping
27.8% last season to 20.0% this one.
Moved up and held it
High-A to Triple-A.
What the hobby pays up for
SP sells at a discount at equal production; 25.0 is old for a prospect card.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Small sample
15 batters faced this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
Command risk
Command grades 31 on the 20–80 scale (-13.3% K-BB). strikeouts minus walks — the gap that survives a promotion
Pitcher
Injury risk is materially higher and the resale market is smaller, which is why the strategy caps what share of a book pitchers can take.
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
What the hobby pays for him
A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.
Benchmark not yet established — no 1st Bowman vehicle observed for this player. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, No base auto listed — cheapest numbered option shown; premium ratio unavailable. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.
What would make this a buy
- On his best-priced card: past the window.
- A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.
What is for sale right now
16 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 16 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 10 are under "The whole live market".
Erik Rivera 2020 Bowman Chrome #CPA-ERI 1st Prospect Auto Speckle /299
/299 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 28d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
$3.05
modeled ~$11.99
WATCH
2020 Bowman Chrome Prospects Blue Refractor /150 Erik Rivera #CPA-ERI Auto 13c1
/150 · raw · condition not stated · listed 25d
Not a core card · 4 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$7.54
modeled ~$14.61
WATCH
2020 Bowman Chrome Prospects Speckle Refractor 18/299 Erik Rivera Auto 15wb
/299 · raw · condition not stated · listed 23d
Not a core card · 4 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$7.57
modeled ~$8.00
WATCH
2020 Bowman Chrome Prospects Blue Refractor /150 Erik Rivera #CPA-ERI Auto 0o6v
/150 · raw · condition not stated · listed 5d
Not a core card · 4 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$7.82
modeled ~$14.61
WATCH
2020 Bowman Chrome Prospects Speckle Refractor /299 Erik Rivera Auto 3t8
/299 · raw · condition not stated · listed 22d
Not a core card · 4 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$7.82
modeled ~$8.00
WATCH
2020 Bowman Chrome Prospects Blue Refractor /150 Erik Rivera #CPA-ERI Auto 03ox
/150 · raw · condition not stated · listed 4d
Not a core card · 4 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$7.83
modeled ~$14.61
WATCH
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder4 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $7.54, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $7.54 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Speckle /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $3.05, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $3.05 live
- Scarcity
- 299 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -60%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Speckle Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $7.57, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $7.57 live
- Scarcity
- 299 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +148%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Blue Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $7.54, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $7.54 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -0%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
4 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 35 on the 20–80 scale, against 907 pitchers at Triple-A
What he is good at
skills overall 35 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 907 pitchers at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Stuff
Does he miss bats?
46
below average · better than 35% at his level
20.0% K
strikeout rate per batter faced — never per nine innings, which flatters a pitcher who allows more baserunners
Command
Bats missed AND strikes thrown?
31
bottom of the scale · better than 3% at his level
-13.3% K-BB
strikeouts minus walks — the gap that survives a promotion
Control
Does he give away bases?
27
bottom of the scale · better than 1% at his level
33.3% BB
walk rate, inverted — lower is better from the mound
Run prevention
Do the runs stay off the board?
47
average · better than 39% at his level · the result, not a skill
1.64 WHIP
walks and hits per inning, inverted — the result, and the defence behind him is in it too
Workload
Is he carrying a starter's innings?
38
well below · better than 12% at his level · context, not a skill
3.2 IP
innings carried — a starter's bulk is worth what a reliever's is not
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
58
plus · better than 80% at his level · context, not a skill
+1.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 3 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 13th percentile of the cohort, run prevention at the 39th — his results run further ahead of his tools than 90% of the players he is measured against.
The stat line is doing the selling and the skills underneath it are not carrying it. Pay for the line and you are paying for the part that does not repeat.
How this is read: his skills average 13 and his run prevention sits at 39, a gap of -26. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 907 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 10th percentile.
Will he get there?
Real chance 5.7 / 10
- already at Triple-A
- old for Triple-A
- pitcher — more of them break down before they arrive
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.
How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 907 other pitchers at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
BF
15
IP
3.2
ERA
4.91
WHIP
1.64
K-BB%
-13.3
better than 3%
K%
20.0
BB%
33.3
HR9
0.00
GS
0
Is this player getting better?
Down from 11.1% to -13.3% K-BB, but that came with a move up to Triple-A — a step back at a harder level is normal.
Moved up from High-A to Triple-A — the pitching is harder this year.
K-BB%
11.1%▼-13.3%
Strikeouts
27.8%▼20.0%
Walks
16.7%▲33.3%
WHIP
1.65→1.64
ERA
7.33▼4.91
Last season, 216 batters faced. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market16 listed · 16 eBay-verified · 10 not shown above
- Listings
- 16
- Lowest live
- $3.05
- Median ask
- $7.74
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $3.05
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $3.05
16 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 1 hour ago.
The other 10 cards
- $8.062020 Bowman Chrome Prospects Speckle Refractor /299 Erik Rivera Auto 1dl2WATCH
- $8.122020 Bowman Chrome Prospects Speckle Refractor 101/299 Erik Rivera Auto q3oWATCH
- —2020 Bowman Chrome #CPA-ERI Erik Rivera REFRACTOR AUTO ROOKIE - Angels SGC 9.5WATCH
- —2020 Bowman Chrome Erik Rivera BASE AUTO RC LOS ANGELES ANGELS PSA 10WATCH
- —2020 Bowman Chrome Sapphire Erik Rivera Autograph RC PSA 10 AutoWATCH
- —2020 Bowman Chrome Erik Rivera BASE AUTO RC LOS ANGELES ANGELS PSA 10WATCH
- $7.542020 Bowman Chrome Prospects Refractor 267/499 Erik Rivera #CPA-ERI Auto 0kr0WATCH
- $7.542020 Bowman Chrome Prospects Refractor 214/499 Erik Rivera #CPA-ERI Auto 0p16WATCH
- $7.662020 Bowman Chrome Prospects Refractor /499 Erik Rivera #CPA-ERI Auto 1dl2WATCH
- $8.052020 Bowman Chrome Prospects Refractor 291/499 Erik Rivera #CPA-ERI Auto 0nr3WATCH
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run