Axiel Plaz
C · High-A · 21.0y · #670 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- SOLID
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Watch
62 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
3 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
All in it's $55.49, and these have been selling around $24.99.
Our take
Solid prospect, untested market.
Axiel Plaz scores 62 out of 100 (#670 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +2.0y vs his level at High-A — younger than 90% of the players there.
We have 2 confirmed sales of his cards in the last 90 days, but no standardized benchmark card yet, so the price side rests on whatever is listed rather than on one comparable series.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: thin comp evidence — 2 confirmed sales in 90 days. Treat any value here as a single data point, not a price.
The signal
Young for the level
+2.0y vs his level at High-A — younger than 90% of the players there.
Speed: below average
5 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Contact: plus
17.9% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 84% at his level.
Moved up and held it
Low-A to High-A.
Premium position
C — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
Power: above average
.181 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 73% at his level.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Thin comp evidence
2 confirmed sales in 90 days. Treat any value here as a single data point, not a price.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
What the hobby pays for him
A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.
Benchmark not yet established — candidates seen, none corroborated by enough sellers. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
No live ask and no confirmed sale on any version of his cards, so there is nothing here to call good or bad value.
What would make this a buy
- On his best-priced card: evidence still thin.
- A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.
What is for sale right now
3 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 3 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 3 worth looking at, best first.
2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Axiel Plaz Purple Refractor Auto RC /250
/250 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 5d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 86h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$105.17
modeled $15.95–25.99
PASS
Axiel Plaz 2023 Bowman Chrome Speckle Refractor Auto 1st /299 #CPA-APL Pirates
/299 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 14d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 86h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$55.49
modeled $15.34–24.99
PASS
2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Axiel Plaz Prospect Auto Autograph Refractor /499 Pirates
/499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 9d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 86h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$43.49
modeled $14.11–22.99
PASS
What the same money buys today
Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Axiel Plaz, just what the money can do today.
- Charles McAdoo/150$45.16Watch47% under fair value
- Pedro Ramírezbase$35.94Watch14% under fair value
Compared within $21.75–$45.66, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder5 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
1 listing watched off the board here, none confirmed sold — no price to judge.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- nothing listed
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- GoldTHIN EVIDENCE
1 listing watched off the board here, none confirmed sold — no price to judge.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- nothing listed
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $43.49, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $43.49 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Speckle Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $55.49, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $55.49 live
- Scarcity
- 299 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +28%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $105.17, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $105.17 live
- Scarcity
- 250 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +90%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
What he is good atSkills 52 on the 20–80 scale, against 492 hitters at High-A
What he is good at
skills overall 52 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 492 hitters at High-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
60
plus · better than 84% at his level
17.9% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
56
above average · better than 73% at his level
.181 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
45
below average · better than 30% at his level
8.8% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
45
below average · better than 32% at his level
5 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
59
plus · better than 82% at his level · the result, not a skill
.845 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
63
plus · better than 90% at his level · context, not a skill
+2.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 55th percentile of the cohort, production at the 82th — his results run further ahead of his tools than 90% of the players he is measured against.
The stat line is doing the selling and the skills underneath it are not carrying it. Pay for the line and you are paying for the part that does not repeat.
How this is read: his skills average 55 and his production sits at 82, a gap of -27. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 492 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 10th percentile.
Will he get there?
Real chance 5.7 / 10
- hitting well — 0.845 OPS in 374 PA (not ranked against his level)
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.
How he is playingThe High-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 492 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
374
AVG
.291
OBP
.373
SLG
.472
OPS
.845
better than 82%
HR
14
SB
3
BB%
8.8
K%
17.9
Is this player getting better?
Hitting better than last season even though the pitching got harder — .798 to .845 after moving up to High-A. That is the shape of a breakout.
Moved up from Low-A to High-A — the pitching is harder this year.
OPS
.798▲.845
Power
.188→.181
Walks
9.0%→8.8%
Strikeouts
20.2%▼17.9%
Last season, 233 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold for2 logged sales
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
Point at a dot to see that sale.
The whole live market3 listed · 3 eBay-verified
- Listings
- 3
- Lowest seen
- $43.49
- Median ask
- $55.49
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $43.49
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $43.49
3 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 3 days ago.
Worth reading for this player
- What a modeled fair value means — at least one value on this page was modeled rather than taken from a sale
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run