Fernando Perez
SP · New Hampshire Fisher Cats · New Hampshire Fisher Cats · Double-A · 22.0y · #5381 of 7,942 we rate
Next: Tue 10:07 PM at Binghamton Rumble Ponies
- The player
- LONG SHOT
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Watch
26 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
4 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Nobody has logged a completed sale for this card, so we can't say what it's worth.
Our take
Long-shot prospect, untested market.
Fernando Perez scores 26 out of 100 (#5381 of the 7,942 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +2.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 95% of the players there.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 74 batters faced this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
The signal
Young for the level
+2.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 95% of the players there.
Control: bottom of the scale
25.7% BB — walk rate, inverted — lower is better from the mound
K-BB% slipping
16.9% last season to -13.5% this one.
Strikeouts slipping
21.8% last season to 12.2% this one.
Moved up and held it
High-A to Double-A.
What the hobby pays up for
SP sells at a discount at equal production.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Small sample
74 batters faced this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
Command risk
Command grades 32 on the 20–80 scale (-13.5% K-BB). strikeouts minus walks — the gap that survives a promotion
Pitcher
Injury risk is materially higher and the resale market is smaller, which is why the strategy caps what share of a book pitchers can take.
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
What the hobby pays for him
A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.
Benchmark not yet established — no 1st Bowman vehicle observed for this player. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, /499 at $7.76 costs 0.28× base, and print run alone suggests 1.15×, with no measured sales to check it against — best balance available. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.
What would make this a buy
- On his best-priced card: not a core card.
- A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.
What is for sale right now
4 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 4 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 4 worth looking at, best first.
2015 Bowman Chrome Prospects Refractor 474/499 Fernando Perez #BCAP-FP Auto 5w7
/499 · raw · condition not stated · listed 3d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$7.76
modeled ~$11.99
WATCH
2015 Bowman Chrome Fernando Perez Blue Refractor Auto #ED 150 BGS 9.5/10 PADRES
Blue Refractor · BGS 9.5 · takes offers · listed 3102d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$27.99
modeled ~$6.00
WATCH
2015 Bowman Prospects Fernando Perez Auto San Diego Padres #BP9 1st Bowman
base · raw · condition not stated · listed 9d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 100h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$34.90
modeled ~$9.26
WATCH
2015 Bowman Chrome 1/1 Superfractor Fernando Perez Auto Padres Rays
1/1 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 480d
Not a core card · 2 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$130.99
modeled ~$9.26
WATCH
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder3 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $34.90, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $34.90 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $7.76, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $7.76 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -78%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Superfractor 1/1THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $130.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $130.99 live
- Scarcity
- 1 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +1588%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
1 listing sits in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 33 on the 20–80 scale, against 567 pitchers at Double-A
What he is good at
skills overall 33 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 567 pitchers at Double-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Stuff
Does he miss bats?
35
well below · better than 7% at his level
12.2% K
strikeout rate per batter faced — never per nine innings, which flatters a pitcher who allows more baserunners
Command
Bats missed AND strikes thrown?
32
bottom of the scale · better than 4% at his level
-13.5% K-BB
strikeouts minus walks — the gap that survives a promotion
Control
Does he give away bases?
32
bottom of the scale · better than 4% at his level
25.7% BB
walk rate, inverted — lower is better from the mound
Run prevention
Do the runs stay off the board?
39
well below · better than 14% at his level · the result, not a skill
2.09 WHIP
walks and hits per inning, inverted — the result, and the defence behind him is in it too
Workload
Is he carrying a starter's innings?
44
below average · better than 28% at his level · context, not a skill
14.1 IP
innings carried — a starter's bulk is worth what a reliever's is not
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
66
plus-plus · better than 95% at his level · context, not a skill
+2.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 3 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 5th percentile of the cohort, run prevention at the 14th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.
Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.
How this is read: his skills average 5 and his run prevention sits at 14, a gap of -9. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 566 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 32th percentile.
Will he get there?
Real chance 5.3 / 10
- already at Double-A
- pitcher — more of them break down before they arrive
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.
How he is playingThe Double-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 567 other pitchers at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
BF
74
IP
14.1
ERA
7.53
WHIP
2.09
K-BB%
-13.5
better than 4%
K%
12.2
BB%
25.7
HR9
0.63
GS
4
Is this player getting better?
Down from 16.9% to -13.5% K-BB, but that came with a move up to Double-A — a step back at a harder level is normal.
Moved up from High-A to Double-A — the pitching is harder this year.
K-BB%
16.9%▼-13.5%
Strikeouts
21.8%▼12.2%
Walks
4.9%▲25.7%
WHIP
1.12▲2.09
ERA
3.05▲7.53
Last season, 386 batters faced. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market4 listed · 4 eBay-verified
- Listings
- 4
- Lowest live
- $7.76
- Median ask
- $31.45
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $34.90
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- —
4 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 1 hour ago.
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run