Nolan Schubart
CF · Double-A · 22.0y · #115 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- STRONG PROSPECT
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Wait for a better price
78 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
25 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Closest of his is 2025 Bowman Chrome Draft Nolan Schubart… at $26.49. Needs a $12 drop.
Our take
Strong prospect, untested market.
Nolan Schubart scores 78 out of 100 (#115 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +2.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 91% of the players there.
His core Bowman card has been selling at $11–20 off 2 confirmed sales.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: swing-and-miss — contact grades 40 on the 20–80 scale (33.1% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
The signal
Young for the level
+2.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 91% of the players there.
Contact: well below
33.1% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Plate discipline: plus-plus
20.2% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 96% at his level.
Moved up and held it
Low-A to Double-A, though the prior season is a thin sample.
Premium position
CF — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
Power: plus-plus
.293 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 95% at his level.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Swing-and-miss
Contact grades 40 on the 20–80 scale (33.1% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Thin comp evidence
2 confirmed sales in 90 days. Treat any value here as a single data point, not a price.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how raw base 1st bowman draft chrome auto sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2025 Bowman Draft 1st Auto CPA-NS — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 4 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
$10.80–20.25midpoint $18.41
Evidence limited· 2 salesmost recent 2026-08-24 · 4 listed now
- 7 days
- not enough sales
- 30 days
- not enough sales
- 90 days
- not enough sales
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2025 Bowman Draft 1st Auto CPA-NS
Raw base 1st Bowman Draft Chrome Auto
The draft-class equivalent of the canonical auto — same card kind, other product line. Identified from 4 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
No good entry today
The closest to fair is 2025 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Aqua Lava Refractor Nolan Schubart Auto 0m4f at $74.81, 306% over the $12–18.41 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.
That card at or under $12 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.
What would make this a buy
- Needs a $12 drop
- Player not there yet
- 2025 Bowman Chrome Draft Nolan Schubart… at or under $14.73 delivered.
- On his best-priced card: waiting on sales.
What is for sale right now
25 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 25 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 19 are under "The whole live market".
NOLAN SCHUBART 2025 BOWMAN CHROME DRAFT 1st Gold Auto /50
/50 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 12d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
$355.99
modeled $15.55–68.04
WATCH
Topps 2025 1st Bowman Chrome Nolan Schubart Gold Shimmer Rookie Auto #/50
/50 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 208d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
—
modeled $15.55–68.04
WATCH
2025 Bowman Draft Nolan Schubart Chrome Auto Sparkle Refractor 1st Prospect /71
/71 · raw · condition not stated · listed 8d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
—
sold $140
WATCH
NOLAN SCHUBART 2025 BOWMAN CHROME DRAFT 1ST RC GREEN LAVA AUTO /99 Grade Me!
/99 · raw · condition not stated · listed 62d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
$289.98
modeled $11.66–51.03
PASS
2025 BOWMAN DRAFT PROSPECT 1ST RC CHROME AUTO GREEN /99 NOLAN SCHUBART POWER!
/99 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 62d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
$309.98
modeled $11.66–51.03
PASS
2025 Bowman Chrome Draft 1st Nolan Schubart Auto HTA Choice Refractor /150 Mojo
/150 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 1d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
$72.98
modeled $9.72–42.53
PASS
What the same money buys today
Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Nolan Schubart, just what the money can do today.
- Cole CarriggRefractor$14.98Watch42% under fair value
Compared within $13.24–$27.81, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder12 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
1 listing watched off the board here, none confirmed sold — no price to judge.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $26.49 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Aqua Lava RefractorTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $74.81, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $74.81 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +182%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $75.25, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $75.25 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +1%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Aqua Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $61.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $61.00 live
- Scarcity
- 199 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -19%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Blue Wave /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $199.51, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $199.51 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +227%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - HTA Choice /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $156.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $156.00 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -22%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - HTA Choice Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $72.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $72.98 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -53%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Green /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $309.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $309.98 live
- Scarcity
- 99 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +325%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Green Lava /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $289.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $289.98 live
- Scarcity
- 99 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -7%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Sparkle Refractor /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $505.95, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $505.95 live
- Scarcity
- 71 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +75%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Gold /50THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $355.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $355.99 live
- Scarcity
- 50 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -30%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Gold Wave Refractor /50THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $1005.95, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $1005.95 live
- Scarcity
- 50 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +183%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
1 sale and 2 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 54 on the 20–80 scale, against 496 hitters at Double-A
What he is good at
skills overall 54 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 496 hitters at Double-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
40
well below · better than 17% at his level
33.1% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
66
plus-plus · better than 95% at his level
.293 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
68
plus-plus · better than 96% at his level
20.2% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
43
below average · better than 25% at his level
5 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
68
plus-plus · better than 96% at his level · the result, not a skill
1.040 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
63
plus · better than 91% at his level · context, not a skill
+2.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 58th percentile of the cohort, production at the 96th — his results run further ahead of his tools than 96% of the players he is measured against.
The stat line is doing the selling and the skills underneath it are not carrying it. Pay for the line and you are paying for the part that does not repeat.
How this is read: his skills average 58 and his production sits at 96, a gap of -38. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 496 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 4th percentile.
Will he get there?
Real chance 6.5 / 10
- already at Double-A
- hitting well — 1.040 OPS in 124 PA (not ranked against his level)
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.
How he is playingThe Double-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 496 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
124
AVG
.303
OBP
.444
SLG
.596
OPS
1.040
better than 96%
HR
8
SB
1
BB%
20.2
K%
33.1
Is this player getting better?
Hitting better than last season even though the pitching got harder — .895 to 1.040 after moving up to Double-A. That is the shape of a breakout — but last season was a small sample, so go easy on it.
Moved up from Low-A to Double-A — the pitching is harder this year.
OPS
.895▲1.040
Power
.216▲.293
Walks
22.7%▼20.2%
Strikeouts
36.4%▼33.1%
Last season, 66 times at bat — a small enough sample that these gaps might just be luck. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold for2 logged sales
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
Point at a dot to see that sale.
The whole live market25 listed · 25 eBay-verified · 19 not shown above
- Listings
- 25
- Lowest live
- $26.49
- Median ask
- $156.00
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $26.49
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $61.00
25 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 7 hours ago.
The other 19 cards
- —2025 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Blue Wave Auto Nolan Schubart/150 *Guardians*PASS
- —2025 Bowman Draft Nolan Schubart 1st Chrome Aqua Lava Auto Autograph 17/199 SPPASS
- —2025 Bowman Draft Nolan Schubart 1st Chrome Aqua Lava Auto Autograph 038/199 🔥PASS
- $75.252025 Bowman Chrome Draft Nolan Schubart 1st Refractor Auto /499 #CPA-NSPASS
- —NOLAN SCHUBART 2025 BOWMAN CHROME DRAFT 1ST RC REFRACTOR AUTO /499 #CPA-NS STUD!PASS
- —2025 1st Bowman Chrome Auto Nolan Schubart #CPA-NS PASS
- $199.51Nolan Schubart 2025 Bowman Draft #CPA-NS First (1st) AUTO Blue Wave [#053/150]PASS
- $61.00Nolan Schubart 2025 Bowman Draft Auto #CPA-NS 1st Aqua Refractor /199PASS
- $156.002025 Bowman Draft #CPA-NS Nolan Schubart Chrome Prospect Auto HTA Choice #/150PASS
- $12599.992025 Bowman Draft Nolan Schubart 1st Chrome TRUE Red Refractor Auto /5 - PSA 10WATCH
- —2025 Bowman Draft Nolan Schubart 1st Bowman Sparkle Refractor Auto /71 PSA 10WATCH
- $505.952025 Bowman Draft 1st Nolan Schubart #/71 Sparkle Refractor Auto Guardians 🔥PASS
- $1005.952025 Bowman Draft 1st Nolan Schubart #/50 Gold Wave Refractor Auto Guardians 🔥PASS
- —2025 Bowman Draft Nolan Schubart 1st Bowman Aqua Lava Refractor Auto /199 GuardsPASS
- $26.492025 Bowman Chrome Draft Nolan Schubart Auto 1st #CPA-NS GuardiansPASS
- $31.742025 Bowman Draft Nolan Schubart Chrome Auto 1st Prospect #CPA-NS GuardiansPASS
- $43.48Nolan Schubart 2025 Bowman Draft #CPA-NS First (1st) Chrome Prospect AUTO -BPASS
- $74.812025 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Aqua Lava Refractor Nolan Schubart Auto 0m4fPASS
- —2025 BOWMAN NOLAN SCHUBART 1ST RC YELLOW AUTO /75 Guardians MASS POWER! 📈🔥PASS
Worth reading for this player
- Grading break-even calculator — his cards have sold graded, so the raw-versus-graded gap is a real decision here
- What a modeled fair value means — at least one value on this page was modeled rather than taken from a sale
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same